Kansas City Chiefs versus New England Patriots NFL Playoffs Real Money Fantasy Picks 1-16-2016

 

The NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs get underway on Saturday as the AFC conference is featured when the New England Patriots host the Kansas City Chiefs. Fantasy football draft GM’s can tune to CBS TV on January 16th at 4:35PM Eastern Time from New England to track the scoring results of their one day leagues.

 

Kansas City was in action for the AFC Wildcard game last week while the Patriots got a much needed week of rest to get healthy with a bye week. The Chiefs carry an 11 game win streak as they blew out the Houston Texans 30-0. KC has put up some weak passing numbers this season and have gotten enough production from their run game to sit 9th in scoring offense by averaging 25.3 points per game. It has been the defense that has been outstanding for Kansas City They are seventh in total defense and sit third in the NFL in scoring defense by giving up only 17.9 points per game. In their victory against the Texans last week the Chiefs held the Texans to only 226 yards of offense and forced five turnovers by picking off Brian Hoyer four times.

 

New England has been hit hard on the injury front to their playmakers in the passing game. The good news is the team has upgraded Julian Edelman to probable on Sunday. Tom Brady had a high ankle sprain in Week 17 and reports are he is improving and will play. The point total for New England has sank in recent games as they have put up a total of 30 points total in their past two games at the Jets and Dolphins. They are 2-4 entering the playoffs.

 

Kansas City Chiefs QB

 

Alex Smith

 

It’s amazing during the passing era that Alex Smith has not thrown for 200 yards or greater in six straight games all resulting in wins. He has passed for multiple touchdown throws in four of his past seven games.

 

Kansas City Chiefs RB

 

Charcandrick West

 

West is the leading rusher for the Chiefs but it is running back by committee in KC and there is no value in picking one of their running backs in daily or head to head leagues.

 

Kansas City Chiefs WR

 

Jeremy Maclin

 

The former Philadelphia Eagle leads the Chiefs with 87 catches for 1088 yards and eight touchdowns. Problem is Maclin has a high ankle sprain and is questionable.

 

Kansas City Chiefs TE:

 

Travis Kelce

 

Kelce came up big for the Chiefs in their win at Houston. The tight end caught eight balls for 128 yards last week in the AFC Wildcard game. He averaged 16.0 yards per catch in the win. But with Maclin hurt expect the Patriots to game plan to contain Kelce in this spot which leaves Alex Smith few options in the passing game.

 

New England Patriots QB

 

Tom Brady

 

Interesting to see how his high ankle sprain will impact Brady’s ability to throw deep in this game. He has thrown for 231 yards or fewer in three of his past four games and faces a strong defense in the Chiefs.

 

New England Patriots RB

 

Brandon Bolden

 

With numerous injuries in the Patriots backfield Bolden has seen time in the backfield for the Patriots. But he is not trusted to get enough carries in this game to add to a roster.

 

New England Patriots TE:

 

Rob Gronkowski

 

The Patriots veteran tight end leads the team with 72 catches for 1176 yards and 11 touchdowns. Look for Gronkowski to be heavily targeted in this game like he always is. Teams know that Gronk will get passes yet opposing defenses have trouble defending the big man.

 

New England Patriots K

 

Stephen Gostkowski

 

Gostkowski has been money for New England on the year. He is a perfect 52 of 52 on extra points and has been successful in 33 of 36 field goal tries. The Patriots place kicker figures to get many chances in this game because of the high quality of play from the KC defense this year.

 

NFL Playoffs Football Fantasy League Picks

 

QB: Tom Brady (Patriots)

TE: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)

K: Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots)

Posted in NFL

Week 16 Value Picks

Quarterback

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The shootout of the weekend should be between Jacksonville and New Orleans, assuming Drew Brees is healthy enough to take the field after tearing his plantar last week (the same injury Peyton Manning is struggling with). These two quarterbacks love to throw the ball and their defenses love to let the ball be thrown. I give Bortles the fantasy edge though since the Saints defense is more flawed fundamentally and Bortles just loves to throw the ball way down the field.

Kirk Cousins could be a great value pick this weekend as well. He has been on fire lately and we see the weapons he has in Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson (even Alfred Morris as well). Thats not even considering the fact that the Eagles secondary is great at making any quarterback look like Tom Brady out there.

Running Back

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As you can see from the above, there are not many great options at running back this week with the highest projected running back as Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) with only 20.6 projected points. You can spend the money at Running back if you wish and go with the likes of Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) and Matt Forte (CHI @ TB) in what should be a run off, or you can save your money for the higher value at the Receiver position and go for the bargain picks of Darren Sproles (WAS @ PHI), Tim Hightower (JAX @ NO), Christine Michael (STL @ SEA), or Ameer Abdullah (SF @ DET).

Wide Receiver

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The stack of the week should be Allen Robinson and Blake Bortles against the Saints. There is no denying that the Big Ben and Antonio Brown connection has been unstoppable this year, no matter what the matchup. He is going to cost you a pretty penny but fading Antonio Brown may just kill your chances of winning big, as it has plenty of weekends this year already.

Or you can go with Doug Baldwin who has scored over 10 touchdowns in the past 4 weeks. Can he keep this streak going against the Rams? I’m saying yes, not that he will score another 3 touchdowns, but he should be able to haul in 1 or 2 providing some good fantasy value. Seattle doesn’t seem to be stopping this charge until the season ends.

If you are trying to find a cheap value receiver to fill that last spot in your lineup with limited funds, you can look to Jeremy Maclin (CLE @ KC), John Brown (GB @ ARI), Michael Floyd (GB @ ARI), Willie Snead (JAX @ NO), Bradon Cooks (JAX @ NO), or Golden Tate (SF @ DET).

Tight End

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The tight end decision has been made easier in the previous couple weeks with Gronk out. Up until then the decision was go for Gronk, accept the 50+% ownership and $7000+ price tag and hope its his week, or choose from the list of alternative tight ends. The Gronk versus the field decision is back. This week it is easy though.

Gronk has not shown his dominance of previous years this season and is only projected about 1 point higher than the Saints‘ Benjamin Watson. The value picks here are Ebron and Kelce. Kelce has been stagnated slightly since his explosive start to the season and his salary reflects that decline. However, he has high end potential against the Browns, which is what you are going to need to win any big NFL Daily Fantasy Tournament. Ebron as well has shown brilliance at times this year and is getting more action lately with Calvin Johnson all of the sudden becoming obsolete in their offense. Ebron comes much cheaper than the other highly projected options and allows you to spend the cash where you want this week, with the receivers.

Posted in NFL

NFL Week 13 Value Picks

Quarterback

Matt Hasselback (Ind @ Pit) When Hasselback is the starting quarterback, the colts pass A LOT. He is averaging almost 40 passing attempts in his four starts this season. Although his efficiency could be better, if he is passing the ball this much against the weak Pittsburg secondary (which ranks third most on the list of passing yards allowed) he is bound to produce some good fantasy value.
Projection: 23.0 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5900

Jay Cutler (SF @ Chi) Cutler is gets his favorite tight end target back this week and is facing a weak 49ers defense. He is very volatile as quarterbacks come but if we see the right Jay Cutler this week, the conditions are set for a big fantasy performance.
Projection: 21.4 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5500

Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ @ NYG) The New York Giants have allowed an average of 309 passing yards per game to opposing teams so far this season, which is over 20 yards more than the next closest team, the Saints. Fitzpatrick has been playing decent lately but these teams always seem to bring a little extra in these rivalry matches.
Projection: 20.3 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5500

Running Back

Javorious Allen (Bal @ Mia) The Dolphins lead the list in rushing yards allowed with 138 rushing yards per game. Allen has taken over lead rusher duties as Forsett was put on the DL. Allen hasn’t done anything astonishing yet but he has been given the attempts and he comes at a bargain. Look for a breakout performance from him against the weak rush defense of the Dolphins.
Projection: 21.0 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4300

Jonathan Stewart (Car @ NO) On top of ranking second most passing yards allowed, the Saints rank third most for rushing yards allowed by opposing teams. The undefeated Panthers should have no issue negotiating this Saints team and which means Stewart will be given plenty of opportunities late in the game to run down the clock.
Projection: 19.8 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5100

Wide Receiver

Eric Decker (NYJ @ NYG) You can go for the Brandon Marshall stack or the Eric Decker stack with Fitz against this weak Giants secondary. Realistically, the value could go either way but after Marshall scored 2 receiving touchdowns last week, Decker will definitely have lower ownership, which means more upside if he is the main target.
Projection: 21.2 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $6000

Donte Moncrief (Ind @ Pit) Moncrief is my value stack of the week with Hasselback. Like the Jets, you can either go Moncrief or Hilton but ownership will be lower with Moncrief and he comes at a cheaper price.
Projection: 21.4 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5000

Brandon Lafell (Phi @ NE) With the list of receiver options getting less and less for Brady by the week, the remaining receivers values are on the rise. All the hype this week is on Scott Chandler due to the patriots tight end focused offense, but without Gronk in the lineup, I am willing to bet the Pats will make less use of their tight ends. Brady will have no problem negotiating this Eagles defense and Lafell should be the main beneficiary.
Projection: 24.9 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4200

Tight End

Vance McDonald (SF @ Chi) McDonald is a very under the radar tight end who has been providing great value as the 49ers top tight end. He has two touchdowns in the past two games despite being among the cheapest options at TE. He is a favorite option for Gabbert and a prime red zone target.
Projection: 14.3 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $3000

Travis Kelce (KC @ Oak) Kelce has been a constant performer and reliable target for Alex Smith in a team with not much else going on. He is going to cost you a little more than some of your other options but he should be able to deliver against the weak pass defense of the Raiders.
Projection: 16.1 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5000

Posted in NFL

Kansas City Chiefs versus Green Bay Packers

Monday Night One Day League Fantasy Picks 9-28-2015

The Monday Night Football game on tap for September 28th features the Green Bay Packers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. Fantasy football draft GM’s can tune to ESPN TV at 8:30PM Eastern Time from Green Bay to follow the results of their roster picks.

The Las Vegas line has the Packers favored by -6 points and they expect each offense to put up points as the total is rather high at 49 points. It is worth noting that these two teams face off against one another just once every four years so the offense should shine on Monday Night. Kansas City will have plenty of time to get ready for Green Bay having played way back on September 17th at home to Denver. The Chiefs are 1-1 with a road win at Houston to open the year and a home loss to Denver 31-24. The Chiefs were unable to hold a 24-17 lead late against the Broncos as they surrender 14 points in the final 36 seconds of the game. The tying touchdown was a 19 yard touchdown pass by Peyton Manning then nine seconds later the Broncos return a Chief fumble for the game winning touchdown.

Green Bay is 2-0 on the campaign as they take the field on Monday Night. They have put up some points this season ranking sixth in scoring 29 points a game. They have a 31-23 road win at Chicago and last week they defeated Seattle 27-17. Defensively the numbers have looked good except in one area which is rush defense. Opponents are rushing for 154 yards on them ranking 31st and second to last in the NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs QB:

Alex Smith

The veteran signal caller is completing 65% of his throws for 434 yards. He has thrown three touchdowns with two picks. The Chiefs offensive line has surrendered six sacks in two games to their starting quarterback.

Kansas City Chiefs RB:

Jamaal Charles

The veteran back has 37 carries for 182 yards with a touchdown. He has seven first down gains and is running for 4.9 yards a carry this season. His best game of the year came at home to Denver where he rushed for 125 yards and touchdown on 21 carries for 6 yards per run.

Kansas City Chiefs TE:

Travis Kelce

The Chiefs third year tight end leads the club with 10 catches for 164 yards with two touchdowns. Alex Smith doesn’t fire deep as much as the elite quarterbacks do in this league so the tight end will be targeted heavily. Kelce had two touchdown catches in week one on the road to Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs WR:

Jeremy Maclin

The receiver was acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason. He has caught nine balls for 109 yards. He has yet to catch a touchdown pass this year. Alex Smith had no touchdown passes to receivers last year. Maclin caught four balls last week against Denver for 57 yards.

Albert Wilson

Wilson is a fantasy dud so far lining up opposite Maclin. He has three catches for 25 yards.

Green Bay Packers QB:

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is playing well hitting on 76% of his throws for 438 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. He threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns last week at home to Seattle.

Green Bay Packers RB:

Eddie Lacy

The Packers running back is questionable as he left the game against Seattle with an ankle problem. He has 22 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown. He had just three carries before getting hurt.

James Starks:

The veteran running back has 22 carries for 97 yards. He is rushing for 4.4 yards a carry on the year. He had 20 carries for 95 yards last week against Seattle.

Green Bay Packers WR:

Randall Cobb

The fifth year wide out has 13 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown. He had a big game against Seattle last week catching eight passes for 116 yards averaging 14.5 yards per catch.

James Jones

Cut by the Giants and signed by the Packers in the preseason. Jones has caught five balls for 80 yards and three touchdowns. He has a touchdown reception in each game this year.

Monday Night Football Real Money Fantasy Picks

QB: Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

RB: Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)

WR: Randall Cobb (Packers), James Jones (Packers)

TE: Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Posted in NFL

Denver Broncos versus Kansas City Chiefs

Thursday Night NFL Fantasy Picks 9-17-2015

Thursday Night Football features two AFC West 2-0 clubs as the Kansas City Chiefs will welcome into town the Denver Broncos. Fantasy football GM’s can tune to CBS TV on September 17th at 8:25PM Eastern Time to follow the results of their one day league rosters.

The Denver Broncos opened the year at home to face the Baltimore Ravens and Denver squeaked by for a 19-13 home victory. It was not a very good offensive performance by the Broncos as they kick four field goals and scored just one touchdown in the win. Denver had 69 rushing yards and 150 yards passing in the game with just one red zone appearance.

The Kansas City Chiefs were successful in week one of the season as they traveled into Houston and came away with the 27-20 victory. The Chiefs offense relied heavily on their first half performance as they are up 27-9 at the half. Unfortunately Kansas City could not score anymore points in the game after the Texans made second half adjustments plus the Chiefs had to sweat out recovering an onside kick in the end.

These two division rivals met twice in the 2014 season. Denver won both games home and away. The Broncos carry a six game win streak against Kansas City into Thursday night. The game held in Kansas City last year was in late November and Denver came away with the 29-16 road win. Denver ran the ball effectively in the victory with 214 yards on the ground. In the Chiefs win in Week 1 at Houston the Texans were without their leading rusher in Arian Thomas who underwent surgery.

Denver Broncos QB: Peyton Manning

Entering the 2015 season fantasy football GM’s were concerned about the arm strength of Peyton Manning. He has lost weapons from previous seasons and the replacements are not of similar quality. His play last week did not sit well with Manning’s detractors. He did not appear to have the same zip on throws he has had in the past. That 39 year old body could be wearing down a bit. He missed open receivers downfield which could be a rust issue rather than age. Another issue facing Manning is the Broncos reconstructed offensive line. Manning dealt with heavy pressure last week as the Ravens on the road got to the veteran quarterback many times with hits. That is a real issue here because the Broncos will be on the road and will have to deal with the noise factor at Arrowhead Stadium. In week one Manning completed 60% of his throws for 150 yards with no touchdowns and an interception that went for a Ravens touchdown.

Denver Broncos RB: Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson

These two running backs split carries and that’s not a good sign for fantasy value. Hillman had 12 carries for 41 yards.

C.J. Anderson on 12 carries for 29 yards. The Broncos two running backs combined for just 2.8 yards a carry.

Denver Broncos WR: Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas

Sanders was targeted 12 times in week one and caught eight balls for 65 yards. His longest play went for 18 yards.

Thomas had seven grabs for 60 yards. Neither receiver had much in their yards per catch average also posting a red flag for drafting Manning in daily leagues.

Kansas City Chiefs QB: Alex Smith

The veteran quarterback was good to his draft managers last week as he hit 22 of 33 passes for 233 yards with three touchdowns passes. He had no turnovers in the game. Going on the highway facing JJ Watt and company in a road opener has to give huge confidence to this Chiefs team and starting quarterback.

Kansas City Chiefs RB: Jamaal Charles

The veteran back ran for 57 yards on 16 carries for just 3.6 yards a carry. Charles is a weapon in the passing game as he caught five balls for 46 yards and a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs TE: Travis Kelce

It was a nice opener for Kelce with six grabs for 106 yards and two touchdowns. He also had five first down gains.

Kansas City Chiefs WR: Jeremy Maclin

The opener in 2015 saw no Chiefs receiver with a receiving touchdown. Jeremy Maclin acquired in the offseason had five receptions for just 52 yards with his longest catch going for 20 yards.

Thursday Night Football Daily Fantasy League Picks

QB: Alex Smith (Chiefs)

RB: Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)

WR: Jeremy Maclin (Chiefs), Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos)

TE: Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Posted in NFL

Tight Ends and Underrated Quarterbacks Dominate Week 1

NFL week 1 is in the books and from here on, it will become harder and harder to find value in your daily fantasy tournament picks. In week 1 the Daily Fantasy Sites had very little data to establish their salaries off of, but as the season progresses, salaries will become more and more accurate. That is not to say however that you cannot find hidden value in a player with a favorable matchup or a little extra game time than normal if you know what you are looking for.

Quarterbacks

If you took a couple of my sleeper picks from last week you are probably a happy camper right now. I had Alex Smith and Phillip Rivers as a couple value picks at the Quarterback position and they not only led the league at their salary level, but even outshone the some premium Quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers.

Alex Smith and Brian Hoyer faced each other in a passing game shootout, that is prime for fantasy value at the quarterback position. Alex Smith threw for 243 passing yards in the Chiefs win over the Texans, with 3 passing touchdowns (mostly to tight end Travis Kelce) finishing the day with a total of 21.7 fantasy points. This put him at 6th for quarterbacks of the weekend behind Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Mariota, and Romo. Hoyer threw for 236 yard on the other side of the ball but only 1 touchdown reduced his fantasy value a bit.

Phillip Rivers sits at fourth on the list of quarterback performers for the weekend throwing for a massive 404 passing yards, easily the most of the weekend. This earned him the 3 point fantasy bonus for over 300 yards and if he could have had more than 4 touchdowns, he would have led the weekend. Rivers led the chargers to a high scoring victory over the Lions. In total, Rivers scored 25.2 fantasy points. Remember, although Romo and Brady outscored him in the fantasy realm, Daily Fantasy NFL Contests are about value, not total points, and Rivers delivered more points than these two for his salary level.

Other Quarterbacks who delivered huge value this weekend were Carson Palmer and Marcus Mariota. Palmer threw for 308 yards, earning the 3 point bonus, and threw three touchdowns totaling 27.3 fantasy points on the weekend, in the Cardinal’s victory over the Saints. Being a mid salary level quarterback, he delivered huge value to put you way up in your Daily Fantasy Cash Draft.

Mariota however provided even more value. Being straight out of the NCAA, his salary was among the lowest of all NFL starting quarterbacks. However, he threw for 4 touchdowns and 209 passing yards in Titans’s dominating victory over Bucs totaling 24.4 fantasy points. Having Martiota in your lineups allowed you to select premium players at other position’s without missing out on fantasy points at quarterback, just the edge you need to win big money.

Tight Ends

The tight end position can really give you a leg up on the competition in daily fantasy NFL. A tight end can just as easily score 0 points as 30, and if you are on the right end of that spectrum, you can rise in the ranks quickly.

The leaders of the weekend were Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert, and like always, Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski started off the Tight End domination on Thursday night with 3 touchdowns and fell just short of the receiving yard bonus with 94 receiving yards. He totaled 32.40 fantasy points, which is a nice boost to your fantasy lineup, however Gronkowski’s salary level was more on the level of a premium receiver than a tight end, which worked against his fantasy value.

The rest of the Tight Ends provided significantly more value than Gronk with much cheaper salary levels. Travis Kelce scored 2 touchdowns with 106 receiving yards, earning him the receiving yard bonus and a total of 31.6 fantasy points. The synergy between Kelce and Alex Smith was a serious boost if you had both Chief’s players in the same lineup.

Tyler Eifert of the Bengals got some great attention from Andy Dalton, especially in the red zone. Eifert totaled 2 touchdowns and 106 receiving yards on 9 receptions for the highest total of the week at Tight End of 34.4 fantasy points.

Look to identify teams that make good use of their tight ends and look for opportunities to pair tight ends and quarterbacks. Also, keep in mind to avoid receivers on these teams since receiving yards are all well and good, but if your receiver isn’t getting the ball in the red zone, you can probably find more value elsewhere.

Posted in NFL