Bills(1-2) vs Patriots  (3-0)

Coming off what could have been a season-saving victory, Rex Ryan prepares to match wits with his biggest rival when he leads the Buffalo Bills into a matchup against Bill Belichick and the host New England Patriots on Sunday (Enter Contest). Despite the absence of quarterback Tom Brady due to a four-game suspension, the unbeaten Patriots are in a familiar perch atop the AFC East.

About the Patriots

It’s unclear if Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Jacoby Brissett, who are both dealing with injuries, will be under center for New England. They have not missed a beat since the beginning of the season. The team improved to 3-0 with a 27-0 demolition of Houston on Sept. 22. They’ve won 21 of their last 22 division home games.

Both Garoppolo (shoulder) and Brissett were limited in drills during Thursday’s practice. The prognosis of the offense was further muddled by the limited status of star tight end Rob Gronkowski (hamstring). Although he did not have a catch in his season debut against the Texans, Gronkowski is expected to be more involved against Buffalo. Running back LeGarrette Blount, who leads the NFL with 298 yards rushing and has scored four touchdowns, was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month on Thursday. Wide receiver Danny Amendola had nine receptions for 117 yards in the last meeting against Buffalo.

New England’s defense is ranked in the middle of the pack. They’ve allowed an average of 90.3 yards rushing and 15.0 points per game. The Patriots won 23 of the past 25 meetings between the longtime division rivals, including a season sweep a year ago.

About the Bills

Buffalo rebounded from a pair of six-point losses with a dominating 33-18 victory over Arizona on Sunday. It was six days after Ryan fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The absence of star wideout Sammy Watkins forced Buffalo to rely on a ground game that produced 208 yards rushing versus Arizona. LeSean McCoy nearly matched his total from the first two weeks combined by rushing for 110 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He rushed for more than 80 yards in both matchups against New England last season.

Watkins was placed on injured reserve Friday, officially ruling him out for at least the next eight weeks. McCoy will be in line for another heavy workload. Buffalo’s defense came alive last week by registering five sacks and four interceptions. Ryan’s teams are 4-18 following a win since 2012.

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Week 16 Value Picks

Quarterback

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The shootout of the weekend should be between Jacksonville and New Orleans, assuming Drew Brees is healthy enough to take the field after tearing his plantar last week (the same injury Peyton Manning is struggling with). These two quarterbacks love to throw the ball and their defenses love to let the ball be thrown. I give Bortles the fantasy edge though since the Saints defense is more flawed fundamentally and Bortles just loves to throw the ball way down the field.

Kirk Cousins could be a great value pick this weekend as well. He has been on fire lately and we see the weapons he has in Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson (even Alfred Morris as well). Thats not even considering the fact that the Eagles secondary is great at making any quarterback look like Tom Brady out there.

Running Back

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As you can see from the above, there are not many great options at running back this week with the highest projected running back as Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) with only 20.6 projected points. You can spend the money at Running back if you wish and go with the likes of Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) and Matt Forte (CHI @ TB) in what should be a run off, or you can save your money for the higher value at the Receiver position and go for the bargain picks of Darren Sproles (WAS @ PHI), Tim Hightower (JAX @ NO), Christine Michael (STL @ SEA), or Ameer Abdullah (SF @ DET).

Wide Receiver

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The stack of the week should be Allen Robinson and Blake Bortles against the Saints. There is no denying that the Big Ben and Antonio Brown connection has been unstoppable this year, no matter what the matchup. He is going to cost you a pretty penny but fading Antonio Brown may just kill your chances of winning big, as it has plenty of weekends this year already.

Or you can go with Doug Baldwin who has scored over 10 touchdowns in the past 4 weeks. Can he keep this streak going against the Rams? I’m saying yes, not that he will score another 3 touchdowns, but he should be able to haul in 1 or 2 providing some good fantasy value. Seattle doesn’t seem to be stopping this charge until the season ends.

If you are trying to find a cheap value receiver to fill that last spot in your lineup with limited funds, you can look to Jeremy Maclin (CLE @ KC), John Brown (GB @ ARI), Michael Floyd (GB @ ARI), Willie Snead (JAX @ NO), Bradon Cooks (JAX @ NO), or Golden Tate (SF @ DET).

Tight End

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The tight end decision has been made easier in the previous couple weeks with Gronk out. Up until then the decision was go for Gronk, accept the 50+% ownership and $7000+ price tag and hope its his week, or choose from the list of alternative tight ends. The Gronk versus the field decision is back. This week it is easy though.

Gronk has not shown his dominance of previous years this season and is only projected about 1 point higher than the Saints‘ Benjamin Watson. The value picks here are Ebron and Kelce. Kelce has been stagnated slightly since his explosive start to the season and his salary reflects that decline. However, he has high end potential against the Browns, which is what you are going to need to win any big NFL Daily Fantasy Tournament. Ebron as well has shown brilliance at times this year and is getting more action lately with Calvin Johnson all of the sudden becoming obsolete in their offense. Ebron comes much cheaper than the other highly projected options and allows you to spend the cash where you want this week, with the receivers.

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Buffalo Bills versus New England Patriots

Monday Night Football Fantasy Picks 11-23-2015

The Monday Night Football game will be a battle between AFC East rivals as the New England Patriots will be home to the Buffalo Bills. Fantasy football draft GMs can tune to ESPN TV at 8:30PM Eastern Time on November 23rd to track the results of their DFS roster picks.

They met for the first time in 2015 on September 20th with New England posting the 40-32 road victory on Buffalo. Patriots had a very good offensive performance in the win. They were able to gain 507 yards of offense on the Bills defense. Tom Brady has a monster performance for fantasy draft managers as he threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. Brady attempted 59 passes in the victory and completed 38 of his throws. Wide receiver Julian Edelman caught two touchdown passes in the win. Rob Gronkowski was targeted 13 times and caught seven balls for 113 yards and a touchdown. To their credit the Bills rallied in the second half to make the game a one possession game after trailing 37-13 after three quarters. Bills starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw for 242 yards and three touchdowns but had three picks in the loss. Taylor also had a rushing touchdown. Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods each had a touchdown catch with Kelvin Williams adding a rushing touchdown. Buffalo will need to do a better job in this game in pass protection by allowing eight quarterback sacks.

Buffalo enters this meeting with a record of 5-4 and holds the final wildcard spot in the AFC conference. They are the number two rushing team in the NFL as they run for 142 yards on the season. Bills are seventh best in the NFL in scoring offense as they average 25.7 points per game. The team is on a two game win streak as they earned an emotional 22-17 road win at the New York Jets on Thursday night football against the team that fired Rex Ryan following last year’s regular season.

New England is an undefeated club at 9-0 this season. They survived a scare last week by posting the 27-26 road win at the New York Giants. Patriots were able to drive the field late to set up the game winning 54 yard field goal with a second remaining by Stephen Gostkowski. The team is the number one team in the NFL in total and scoring offense. They put up 418 yards with 33.7 points per game on the season.

Buffalo Bills QB:

Tyrod Taylor

Taylor has hit on 70.5% of his throws for 1436 yards with 11 touchdowns and four picks. He is a threat with his legs as he has rushed for 243 yards and two touchdowns on 47 carries. Last week in the win against the Jets he passed for 158 yards and a touchdown throw.

Buffalo Bills RB:

LeSean McCoy

The veteran running back has 113 carries for 528 yards with two touchdowns. He is running for 4.7 yards a carry on the campaign. In the win against the Jets McCoy rushed for 112 yards on 19 carries. He has run for over 100 yards in two straight games.

Buffalo Bills WR:

Sammy Watkins

Watkins has 22 catches for 329 yards with three touchdowns. He is coming off a poor game at the Jets with three catches for 14 yards.

New England Patriots QB:

Tom Brady

Brady is putting up some outstanding fantasy numbers as he is completing 67.8% of his throws for 3043 yards with 24 touchdowns and three picks. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all nine games this season.

New England Patriots RB:

LeGarrette Blount

The veteran running back has run for 513 yards on 117 carries and six touchdowns. He is rushing for 4.4 yards a carry on the year. Blount has a rushing touchdown in two straight games.

New England Patriots WR:

Danny Amendola

With Julian Edelman hurt it will be Amendola having to step up in this spot. He has caught 40 passes for 403 yards and two touchdowns.

NFL Monday Night Football Fantasy Real Money League Picks

QB: Tom Brady (Patriots)

RB: LeSean McCoy (Bills)

WR: Danny Amendola (Patriots)

TE: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)

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NFL Week 11 Value Picks

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (Oak @ Det) Although he has thrown almost as many interceptions this year as touchdowns, Stafford always has the potential for a high upside with the lions aggressive passing (that usually comes from being behind early). If Calvin Johnson doesn’t start that could hurt his value a bit but regardless, Stafford should be able to provide good fantasy value for his cheap price among Quarterbacks.
Projection: 23.3 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $6300

 

Tyrod Taylor (Buf @ NE) Taylor is another nice example of a cheap quarterback with high potential for garbage points. Facing the best team in the league, the Bills will be forced to pass the ball to attempt to fight out of their deficit.
Projection: 22.8 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5500

 

Russell Wilson (SF @ Sea) Russell Wilson has failed to provide any sort of fantasy value so far this season but this may be the week he can turn things around. With the Seahawks running backs struggling (Lynch injured and Rawls unproductive) Wilson may resort to throwing the ball or running it himself, either which will be great for his fantasy production.
Projection: 22.5 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $6100

Running Back

Charcandrick West (KC @ SD) West has had great production over the past 3 games scoring a rushing touchdown in each, with an additional receiving touchdown last week. With a favorable matchup this week against the Chargers and his salary remaining on the low end, West is a great value pick for this week.
Projection: 17.7 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4900

 

Latavius Murray (Oak @ Det) Murray has been averaging over 15 rushing attempts per game along with several receptions as well. This gives him huge upside potential to have a big fantasy performance, especially against the weak Lions defensive front.
Projection: 19.1 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5100

 

Jonathan Stewart (Was @ Car) Stewart has gotten at least 20 rushing attempts in all of the Panthers last 4 games. The Panthers should be able to get ahead early and run down the clock, which means plenty of action for Stewart. If Newton hands off those red zone carries instead of taking them himself, Stewarts production could be even better.
Projection: 18.7 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4900

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins (Buf @ NE) Watkins, like Taylor, should be able to rack up the garbage time points against the Patriots. A cheap stack between the two can provide good value and free up cash for other premium players. Nothing glamorous but points are points are point in Daily Fantasy NFL Contests.
Projection: 24.4 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5600

 

Brandon Lafell (Buf @ NE) With Edelman out and Lafell back on the rise, he should get an increase in targets and should be able to open it up for a touchdown. Edelman’s targets may go to Gronk and Amendola, but I think Lafell has the most to gain from Edelman’s absence.
Projection: 22.5 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5000

 

Golden Tate (Oak @ Det) If Calvin Johnson doesn’t get the start Tate will be the primary target for Stafford against the weak Oakland secondary. He has been under the radar so far this season but has great fantasy upside in a favorable matchup.
Projection: 20.1 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5100

Tight End

Crockett Gilmore (Stl @ Bal) Don’t expect a huge number of targets or receiving yards out of Gilmore, but he has been productive in the red zone. If he can get a touchdown for a third game in a row then he will be a good draft pick for your winning lineup.
Projection: 15.8 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $3700

 

Eric Ebron (Oak @ Det) Ebron is another under the radar tight end. Don’t expect a huge number of targets, although they may be increased without Calvin Johnson at 100 percent. He has scored 3 touchdowns this year and always is a red zone threat.
Projection: 13.2 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4000

Posted in NFL

Buffalo Bills versus New York Jets Thursday Night Football Real Money Fantasy Picks 11-12-2015

It will be a battle between playoff contenders from the AFC East division as the New York Jets will be hosting the Buffalo Bills. Fantasy football draft managers can tune to CBS TV on Thursday night November 12th at 8:30PM Eastern Time to track the results of their DFS roster picks.

 

This is the first of two meetings between these two teams. The Bills are 4-4 on the season as they returned to action from their bye week and defeated the Miami Dolphins 33-17 to break a two game losing streak. The Bills defense had been lit up for 34 points each time in back to back losses to Cincinnati and Jacksonville. In their victory the Bills went to their ground and pound attack and generated a total of 266 rushing yards on 36 carries. They finished the game with 410 offensive yards. There is some sideshow attraction for this game as Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan returns to New York to face his former team that fired him after last season. The team is the second best rushing team in the NFL as they run for 141.6 yards per game. They score 26.1 points a game which is 8th best in the NFL. The team sits in the middle of the league on defense.

 

The New York Jets are 5-3 and they too broke a two game losing streak with a 28-23 home victory to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jets defense during their losing streak gave up 30 points at New England and 34 at Oakland in their defeats. In their win against Jacksonville the Jets gave up a lot of yards as the Jaguars piled up 436 yards. A concern is they allowed a struggling second year quarterback in Blake Bortles to pile up 381 passing yards along with two touchdowns and two picks. The Jets run game is a huge concern as their offensively line is banged up and as a result they ran for only 29 yards on 28 carries. New York still seems content to run the ball near the opponent’s goal line as the club had two rushing touchdowns last week. Jets are fourth in total defense by giving up 323 yards per game.

 

Buffalo Bills QB:

Tyrod Taylor

 

The Bills quarterback returned to action after being sidelined two weeks due to injury. He completed 91% of his passes in the win against the Dolphins for 181 yards with a touchdown. On the year he is hitting on 71.8% of passes for 1278 yards with ten touchdowns and four picks. Taylor is a major threat with his feet having rushed 41 times for 231 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Buffalo Bills RB:

 

LeSean McCoy

 

McCoy had his first 100 yard rushing performance as a Buffalo Bill last week at home to the Dolphins. He finished the game with 112 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown. The Bills back averaged 7 yards per carry in the game. On the season McCoy has ran for 637 yards and four touchdowns rushing for 4.1 yards per attempt.

 

Buffalo Bills WR:

Sammy Watkins

 

The Bills featured receiver returned to play after missing three of his past four games with injury. He had a season high 168 receiving yards with a touchdown and eight receptions against Miami.

 

New York Jets QB:

Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

The Jets quarterback is playing with injured ligament in his non-throwing hand. With the run game not working Fitzpatrick was the star offensively last week hitting on 61.8% of his throws for 272 yards with two touchdowns. Fitzpatrick has thrown for 13 touchdowns and seven picks on the season.

 

New York Jets RB:

Chris Ivory

 

Ivory leads the Jets with 137 carries for 716 yards with five touchdowns and 5.2 yards per rush. He struggled the past two games with 38 rushes for 43 yards. He is still trusted near the end zone as he had two short touchdown runs last week.

 

New York Jets WR:

Brandon Marshall

 

The veteran wide out has eight receptions for 730 yards with five touchdowns. He was limited with 44 receiving yards against the Jaguars on four catches last week.

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS League Picks

 

QB: Tyrod Taylor (Bills)

RB: LeSean McCoy (Bills)

WR: Sammy Watkins (Bills)

TE: Charles Clay (Bills)

Posted in NFL

Learning From Week 9’s Perfect Lineup

QB: Drew Brees (NO): 35.56 Fantasy Points
RB: Llamar Miller (Mia): 33.10 Fantasy Points
RB: DeAngelo Williams (Pit): 39.50 Fantasy Points
WR: Cole Beasley (Dal): 35.20 Fantasy Points
WR: Sammy Watkins (Buf): 33.80 Fantasy Points
WR: Michael Crabtree (Oak): 32.80 Fantasy Points
WR: Antonio Brown (Pit): 48.60 Fantasy Points
TE: Delanie Walker (Ten): 28.50 Fantasy Points
D: N.Y. Jets: 12 Fantasy Points

Salary Used: $46,900
Total Fantasy Points Scored: 299.06

Salary Cap Doesn’t Matter

As you can see from the above lineup, the perfect lineup from last weekend for NFL Daily Fantasy Contests could have been constructed in a normal $50 salary cap game, a 75K salary cap game, or even an unrestricted salary cap game. While there certainly is a correlation between salary and points scored, there will always be cheap players who break out for a big performance every week. DeAngelo Williams, Cole Beasley, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, and Delanie Walker were all well outside the top 10 most expensive players from the weekend. This does not mean you should intentionally shoot to use only $46000 of the allowed $50000 salary cap, it just means if you are satisfied with your lineup and fall a bit short, don’t stress about spending that last $800, it won’t necessarily give you a better lineup.

Team Diversification

My general rule in stacking has been disproved by this lineup. Generally I will stack a Quarterback with either a receiver or a tight end and never pick a running back from the same team as my quarterback or receivers. The reason for this is that these performances are usually inversely correlated. If a game is a shootout type game, you will see big value in the passing positions yet running backs tend to underperform. The opposite can be said about a blowout. When a team is up by a lot they tend to run the ball extensively as opposed to going to the air. Therefore, you can usually only expect one or the other to be profitable in the Fantasy world.

However, when the Steelers generate over 500 offensive yards (mainly concentrated on two players) there is room for both positions to prosper. DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown were the two highest fantasy scorers of the weekend.

Apart from that however, you will see that no other positions on the optimal lineup were from the same team. Typically there is only room for one (or two positions in a quarterback/receiver stack) to really blow up in fantasy value.

The last component here is the Defense position. The Jets players Jacksonville this week and as you can see, nobody from Jacksonville was able to make the optimal lineup. Don’t bet against yourself by picking offensive players that are playing against your defense. You may argue you are hedging against a bad game by either one, but if you stand to win much in NFL cash drafts, you need the stars to align for all your picks, hedging gets you nowhere.

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