NFL Wild Card Value Picks

Quarterback

With a small slate of games this weekend you’re quarterback choices are limited. So let’s run through the matchups. Houston and Kansas City has all the makings of a low scoring game. These are two defensive dominated teams and this matchup should be low scoring and slow paced, not places of high value for Fantasy NFL contests. Same can be said about Minnesota and Seattle. While Seattle’s offense is explosive, we saw what they did against the strong defensive front of the Cardinals last weekend, I’m saving my quarterback pick for an easier matchup.

The weakest pass defense of the weekend is by far the Steelers, but with the Bengals current quarterback situation, its hard to say anything for sure. In all likelihood AJ McCarron will be taking the field, but there is the small chance Andy Dalton will return for the game. Either way, they both should be able to provide great value with this matchup, just make sure you keep your eye on the injury report and you get the right one in.

Although the Bengals have a strong pass defense, it seems like nobody is able to stop Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown this year. I expect them to have a big game, but I also expect ownership to be very high on these two, so I’m playing the contrarian strategy and avoiding the Steelers stack.

Last we have Washington and Green Bay. This has all the makings for a classic shootout and I think there will be value on both sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers has been very subpar this entire season, but he has been to the playoffs before and I think he will perform. Kirk Cousins on the other hand has been red hot and putting up big numbers, and that does not look to be stopping anytime soon. You’re probably going to find lower ownership with Rodgers so I’ll give him the edge in a tournament, but based on his performance this year, that may be a risky play.

Running Back

Our premium running backs for the week are Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Jeremy Hill, Characandrick West, and Eddie Lacy. As of now Williams looks to be out for this weekend so lets rule him out now (even if he were playing I don’t love the matchup). Marshawn Lynch will be returning but with the offensive efficiency of the Seahawks lately, its hard to say they will need to make much use of him so I am staying away from Beast mode as well. The Vikings may find it hard to pass against the dominating defense and will certainly run the ball a lot to Peterson, but he has not been as dominant this year as in years past and the Seahawks may shut him down. West as well is facing a tough defense, especially recently, so my recommendation is stay away from any Chiefs back.

So we are left with Hill and Lacy, both on the cheap end as far as premium running backs go. The way the Bengals use Hill and Bernard is very dependent on the matchup. They utilize Hill to run the ball up the middle while Bernard is valued more highly for his speed in screen passes and short drops. This matchup may be better for Bernard than Hill, and Bernard comes at a much cheaper price. Not a bad pick for this week. Lacy is the only premium back I like for this week. Like Hill, he could take a backseat position to Starks but I think Lacy has asserted himself as the primary back after early struggles in the season.

If you are looking for value at Running back however, there is a lot to be found. Starks and Bernard, as previously mentioned, will both only cost you less that $4000 on Fanpicks. Alfred Morris and Pierre Thomas both are a threat to accumulate fantasy value with their run and pass threat. The real value pick of the week is Jonathan Grimes, who put together a big game last weekend and comes at only $2700.

Wide Receiver

The same analysis on Quarterbacks applies to receivers as well. We want to stick with the good matchups: Steelers/Bengals and Packers/Redskins. Skipping out on Antonio Brown may just cost you a win, but I think there is more upside potential on fading Brown, especially for NFL Daily Fantasy Tournaments type contests. AJ Green should be able to put up some big numbers this week regardless of who gets the starting position at Quarterback.

I also like Desean Jackson or Pierre Garcon if you are looking to save a little money at the position. We know Cousins is going to throw the ball and we know he is going to throw it a lot. He may throw a couple interceptions but that doesn’t hurt his fantasy value too bad. It all just depends on which receiver can manage to get open between these two and Reed.

A good contrarian stack is Rodgers and either Cobb or Jones. They haven’t done much this year and are not on many people radar, but like I said before, the Packers know the playoffs. Cobb should get more targets but Jones is more of a long threat. The choice is up to you, I’m going Cobb.

Tight End

For me, the viable tight ends for this week are Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert. While you can make the argument for Heath Miller and Richard Rodgers, I think you will find much more value with Eifert and Reed. Reed is an obvious pick as he has had some very big games lately and is arguably the top tight end in the league. However, that also means he is going to come with a high ownership level, bad news for a tournament play.

That’s why I’m going with Eifert. I can’t stress enough how weak Pittsburgh is against the pass as all of their games end up turning into a shootout. Eifert will especially benefit if Dalton returns this weekend as there is usually great synergy between the two.

Posted in NFL

NFL Week 17 Recap

Pittsburgh Punches their Ticket

The Steelers earned their spot in the playoffs with their victory against the Browns this weekend. Their playoff hopes had less to do with beating the Browns however and more to do with the Jets losing against the Bills. Antonio Brown had his normal huge performance with 13 receptions, 187 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown. Although he threw 2 interceptions, Big Ben still had a solid fantasy day with 349 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns (Antonio Brown, Marcus Wheaton, and Heath Miller). They lost running back Deangelo Williams early on in the game. If he is not healthy for the playoffs, Pittsburgh’s offensive game will be very one dimensional.

The Patriots Struggle

New England had already secured their spot in the playoffs and the division win, but this weekend they still had the AFC championship home field advantage on the line. They appeared to be putting in full effort for that goal with Brady taking the field. However, nothing seemed to be working in their offense. The offensive line provided Brady very little time to work with and lead receivers Amendola and Gronkowski caught only 2 passes each for minimal yardage. The lack of protection resulted in Brady leaving the game late and being replaced by Garoppolo. Things are not looking positive for the Pats going into the playoffs.

Houston Defense Dominates

JJ Watt is back and the Houston Defense is hitting their stride. They had a huge 8 sacks in their season leading fantasy performance (27 fantasy points). They had two interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick 6 while only allowing 6 points scored from the Ravens. Its a good time for them to be coming around too with their 9-7 record earning them the AFC South champions and a spot in the playoffs.

The Sheriff returns to the Field

This season has seemed to be a disaster for Peyton Manning. His body betrayed him in his final NFL season and when he was healthy enough to return, his job had been taken by Brock Osweiler. However, he had a chance to return to the field late in this week 17 game against the Chargers. He looked like his old self out there and potentially may have earned the starting spot in the playoffs. The Broncos have a week off which may be just what Peyton needs to be 100 percent ready to go.

Carolina Coasts it in

The Panthers didn’t have much of a problem getting the win over the Bucs. Their defense shut the Bucs to only 10 points while Cam Newton passed for almost 300 yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and ran a couple goal line touchdowns in himself. Carolina doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses going into the playoffs.

Seahawks take the top of the rankings

With a blowout victory this weekend over the top ranked Cardinals, the Seahawks are the top ranked team going into the playoffs. They have been getting better and better as the season goes and with the return of Marshawn Lynch for the playoffs, they seem unstoppable.

Posted in NFL

NFL Week 9 Value Picks

 

Quarterback

 

Jameis Winston (NYG @ TB): Winston has been consistently subpar this year so far but this week may be a breakout against the weak Giants defense.  We saw last week how flawed the Giants secondary really is.  While I don’t expect a record setting performance from Winston as we saw last week agains the giants, there will be plenty of openings he can take advantage of to air out the ball.

Projection: 22.4 Fantasy Points

 

Jay Cutler (Chi @ SD):  San Diego’s defense has the highest rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed of any team so far this season.  Cutler may not have his star running back Matt Forte but that will force him to throw the ball more, adding to his fantasy value.  With Jeffery and Bennet as top tier targets and the weak secondary, look for Cutler to provide big fantasy numbers.

Projection: 21.4 Fantasy Points

 

Derek Carr (Oak @ Pit):  Derek Carr has recently been a very valuable fantasy option and looks to keep this trend going this weekend against the Steelers.  The Steelers are notorious for shootout games, and if Carr can take advantage of that connection with Cooper, they could both end up with a big day.

Projection: 20.1 Fantasy Points

 

 

Running Back

 

Jeremy Hill (Cle @ Cin):  Hill is always a bit of a gamble as any given game could put Hill in the primary or Bernard.  One of them will definitely have a big game this weekend against the Browns but it could be either.  I’m giving the edge to Hill.

Projection: 20.7 Fantasy Points

 

LeSean McCoy (Mia @ Buf): McCoy has been given at least 10 rushing attempts every game this season and has been efficient with those attempts usually averaging over 4 yards per carry.  Couple that with a couple receptions and the fact that he will get even more workload if the Bills can get up early on the Dolphins and McCoy could be a prosperous draft pick this weekend.

Projection: 20.7 Fantasy Points

 

Duke Johnson (Cle @ Cin): Johnson had very poor rushing production last week against the Cardinals but was somewhat redeemed with his receptions.  He is a cheap fantasy option and may provide some value if he can more rushing attempts with his receiving targets as the Browns will likely have to throw the ball a lot to catch up to the undefeated Bengals.

Projection: 19.2 Fantasy Points

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

 

Amari Cooper (Oak @ Pit): The Carr-Cooper connection should be a valuable pick this weekend in the classic Roethlisberger shootout.

Projection: 24.8 Fantasy Points

 

Stefan Diggs (Stl @ Min):  Although the Vikings are facing the strong Ram’s defensive front, Diggs has been asserting himself as Bridgewater’s top target with a string of big fantasy value games lately (20+ fantasy points in three consecutive games).  He remains a cheap option at receiver.

Projection: 21.0 Fantasy Points

 

Malcom Floyd (Chi @ SD): Despite his minimal salary, Floyd managed 92 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns last week.  While he likely won’t be able to put up those numbers again, he clearly has chemistry with Rivers and the Bears’ defense won’t be able to do much to stop the pass.

Projection: 20.8 Fantasy Points

 

 

 

Tight End

 

Jordan Reed (Was @ NE):  The Redskins will have their hands full this weekend against the Pats and will likely be down early.  This will result in Cousins relying heavily on the pass game, with his favorite target Reed reaping the fantasy benefit.  Not to mention his 11 receptions for 2 touchdowns last week.  While ownership may be high on Reed, it may hurt you more to fade him then to go with the crowd on this one.

Projection: 22.6 Fantasy Points

 

Heath Miller (Oak @ Pit):  Miller has been somewhat unproductive this season so far but like what we have seen from Antonio Brown, he performs much better with Big Ben on the field than off.  Miller caught 100+ yards last weekend with Roethlisberger back in the lineup after failing to get anywhere near that mark in Ben’s absence.

Projection: 20.4 Fantasy Points

Posted in NFL

NFL Fantasy Draft News 9-16-2015

San Francisco 49ers versus Pittsburgh Steelers One Day League NFL Fantasy Picks

The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the San Francisco 49ers in week two action. Fantasy football draft GM’s can tune to FOX at 1PM Eastern Time on Sunday September 20th to follow the results of their rosters.

Many were down on this San Francisco 49ers team as the club lost many of their stars in free agency. Pundits were not too excited with Jim Tomsula replacing Jim Harbaugh as the head coach. Tomsula has a defensive background with the 49ers for several years and it was on display as the 49ers win on Monday night by limiting the Vikings to just three points for the game. The San Francisco run game generated over five yards a carry on the Vikings defense. The 49ers defense limited the Vikings to just 248 yards of offense.

The Steelers opened up with the New England Patriots on a Thursday night. The team struggled on the defensive side of the football in a 28-21 road defeat at New England. The Pittsburgh pass defense was sliced up in the loss as they allowed Tom Brady to throw for 288 yards and four touchdowns. The 49ers will ground and pound but the Steelers limited the Patriots to just 80 rushing yards on 24 carries which amounted to less than four yards per rush.

San Francisco 49ers QB:

Colin Kaepernick was 17 of 26 for 165 yards last week with no touchdown passes. His longest gain in the passing game went for 20 yards. There is talk around the league that Kaepernick will be allowed to run more than in the past with Harbaugh. Last week the 49er signal caller rushed for 41 yards on seven carries for nearly 6 yards per attempt.

San Francisco 49ers RB:

Carlos Hyde is the guy now in San Francisco with veteran running back Frank Gore allowed to walk in free agency. Hyde had a monster fantasy performance with 26 rushing attempts for 168 yards and two touchdowns.

San Francisco 49ers TE:

Vernon Davis had a forgettable 2014 season. His fantasy numbers were way down. In week one he caught three passes for 47 yards for 15.7 yards per catch average. That was more like the Vernon Davis that draft GM’s know and love.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB:

Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a career year in 2014 as he had high’s in many passing categories. Against the Patriots defense Big Ben hit 68% of his throws for 351 yards with a touchdown and pick. He did find a run option in Deangelo Williams last week as Le’Veon Bell will serve his second game of a suspension on Sunday. But don’t believe for a minute that the Steelers will try and run on San Francisco after what they did to Adrian Peterson. Roethlisberger will be firing away downfield to his weapons in the passing game.

Pittsburgh Steelers RB:

DeAngelo Williams will be the featured back once again in week two. Williams rushed 21 times for 127 yards for 6 yards per carry average on the Patriots defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR:

Antonio Brown will be heavily targeted once again. He led Pittsburgh in week one with nine receptions for 133 yards and a touchdown. He averaged a very good 14.7 yards per catch average with the entire world knowing that Big Ben was going his way.

Darrius Heyward-Bey came over from the Oakland Raiders and contributed in week one for Pittsburgh with four catches for 58 yards for 14.5 yards per catch average.

Pittsburgh Steelers TE:

Heath Miller sees a lot of time on the field because he is a very good run blocker. That allows Miller to get targeted in the passing game. In week one Miller caught eight balls for 88 yards for a very good 10.5 yards per catch average.

Posted in NFL

NFL Preview – Pittsburgh Steelers

Daily Fantasy Sports managers, it`s time to play some football. In the next few weeks, we are going to do a preview of every football team in preparation for the NFL 2015 season. Hurry up and go play Fantasy Football Games right now.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will continue to build on their 11-5 season with a loaded offense. It will be a tough road ahead as they kickoff the season against the Super Bowl champions New Engalnd Patriot. Head coach Mike Tomlin has led this team since 2007, and has won Super Bowl 43 with them. Now his the time to see how tough Pittsburgh can really be.

Cash Draft Offensive analysis

QB Ben Roethlisberger has the arsenal to succeed this year. The Steelers have probably the best combination of offensive players in the league. And we all know that “Big Ben” as the knack of winning. Last year, he had 408 completions for 4952 yards and 32 touchdown, while getting intercepted 9 times. Just like good whisky, the 33 years-old is only getting better with age.

RB Le’Veon Bell gained 1361 rushing yards and 854 receiving yards, last year. He led all running backs in combined yardage. This proves that he is one of the better all-around player in the NFL. His Fantasy Value is uncontested among his pears. He will have to sit out the first game due to a suspension, but RB DeAngelo Williams is no slouch either. He spent 9 years in league and was the NFL rushing touchdown leader back in 2008.

WR Antonio Brown was the NFL best receiver in 2014. He caught the football 129 times for 1698 yards and 13 touchdowns. Even if he is 5-foot-10, he plays bigger than he looks. He has the skills to separate himself from traffic and make contested catches all the time. Brown will run his routes beside emerging star WR Martavis Bryant. He had 26 receptions for 549 yards and 8 touchdown in his rookie season. Just like Bell, he will also miss the first game due to suspension. WR Markus Wheaton will be another one to watch for. He has collected 53 receptions for 644 yards and 2 touchdowns. TE Heath Miller will once again suit up the black and yellow for a 10th season. He had 66 reception for 761 yards and 3 touchdowns. He will keep putting up regular numbers in this packed offense.

Cash Draft Defensive analysis

The Steelers defense got older as the years passed, but not anymore. They renewed their squad with younger blood. They are a more opportunistic team now. They look to force the ball more often. LB Jarvis Jones will look to make a big jump, after missing most of 2014. LB Ryan Shazier is a likely candidate for break out season. He was limited because of injury in 2014. The secondary will be younger this year. This could be the weakness in the Steelers organization.

Fantasy Football Outlook

The offense is definitely the strength of the team. But will they overcome the weakness on defense?

Posted in NFL

Week 1 Fantasy Football 2015 Tight Ends Value Picks

NFL Tight End 2015 preview

Week one of the 2015 NFL pro football season is vast approaching. It is a good time to check out the week one fantasy football tight end value picks. With the NFL offenses becoming more wide open in the passing game it is important to identify the tight ends that will be used in passing patterns instead asked to block in the run game. Goal to go situations are critical at this position as tight ends are stronger than receivers and can create separation from a defender with their strength to catch touchdown passes.

Greg Olsen (Panthers): The Carolina Panthers took a huge hit in their passing game as leading receiver Kelvin Benjamin suffered a season ending injury in training camp. Greg Olsen is a sure handed tight end for Cam Newton to go to in the passing game. Olsen caught 84 passes in the 2014 campaign for 1008 yards and six touchdown passes. He was targeted nearly 7 times per game a season ago and will get tons of looks from Newton who doesn’t have many options in his wide receiver position. In the playoffs Olsen averaged over 13 ½ yards per reception.

Larry Donnell (Giants): This is the second year for the New York Giants in this new offense that is a short drop and quick strike for quarterback Eli Manning. Opposing defenses are going to have their hands full protecting against big plays with Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz in the pattern. Donnell in his third season with the Giants caught 63 balls for 623 yards and six touchdowns a season ago. He nearly averaged 10 yards per reception last year. With Beckham Jr. and Cruz attracting attention, look for Donnell to increase his yards after the catch numbers.

Josh Hill (Saints): The Saints allowed tight end Jimmy Graham to walk in free agency to the Seahawks. Hill will get looks from quarterback Drew Brees in 2015. The Saints are not going to change their approach offensively with the loss of Graham. They are going to put the ball in the air a lot again in 2015. In limited time in 2014 Hill caught 14 balls for 176 yards with five touchdowns. Hill averaged over 12 yards a catch and will see his time on the field increase dramatically with the loss of Graham. Hill is a definite target in the red zone for New Orleans because their run game is so poor.

Heath Miller (Steelers): Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a career year in 2014 as he threw for 4952 yards with 32 touchdown passes. The Steelers will continue to keep the ball in the air and not resort back to their grinding running game. Opposing defensive coordinators will work schemes to try and contain Antonio Brown who had an outstanding 2014 campaign. Miller had 66 receptions in 2014 with 761 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged nearly 13 yards per catch in the playoffs last year. Miller is a work horse and doesn’t come off the field much.

Jacob Tamme (Falcons): The Atlanta Falcons looks to be a much improved team in 2015. Matt Ryan will have Julio Jones and Roddy White healthy again on the field together. Ryan in 2014 with a season ending injury to Jones threw for nearly 4799 yards and 28 touchdowns. Jacob Tamme ran routes for Peyton Manning for in his entire career. Now he will be targeted by Matt Ryan. With White and Jones getting heavy attention from opposing defenses this gives Tamme opportunities to be a possession pass catching tight end that will score fantasy points in goal to go situations.

Kyle Rudolph (Vikings): Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is developing well in his second season with Minnesota. Adrian Peterson returns for the Vikings giving Minnesota a break away running back. Mike Wallace gives Minnesota the big play receiver. Look for play action pass catching opportunities for Kyle Rudolph in goal to go situations as well as targets to move the sticks in key third downs. Rudolph is healthy and playing in a Norv Turner offense.

2015 NFL Fantasy Football Week 1 Tight End Value Picks

1. Greg Olsen (Panthers)
2. Larry Donnell (Giants)
3. Josh Hill (Saints)
4. Heath Miller (Steelers)
5. Jacob Tamme (Falcons)
6. Kyle Rudolph (Vikings)

Posted in NFL