Kansas City Chiefs versus New England Patriots NFL Playoffs Real Money Fantasy Picks 1-16-2016

 

The NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs get underway on Saturday as the AFC conference is featured when the New England Patriots host the Kansas City Chiefs. Fantasy football draft GM’s can tune to CBS TV on January 16th at 4:35PM Eastern Time from New England to track the scoring results of their one day leagues.

 

Kansas City was in action for the AFC Wildcard game last week while the Patriots got a much needed week of rest to get healthy with a bye week. The Chiefs carry an 11 game win streak as they blew out the Houston Texans 30-0. KC has put up some weak passing numbers this season and have gotten enough production from their run game to sit 9th in scoring offense by averaging 25.3 points per game. It has been the defense that has been outstanding for Kansas City They are seventh in total defense and sit third in the NFL in scoring defense by giving up only 17.9 points per game. In their victory against the Texans last week the Chiefs held the Texans to only 226 yards of offense and forced five turnovers by picking off Brian Hoyer four times.

 

New England has been hit hard on the injury front to their playmakers in the passing game. The good news is the team has upgraded Julian Edelman to probable on Sunday. Tom Brady had a high ankle sprain in Week 17 and reports are he is improving and will play. The point total for New England has sank in recent games as they have put up a total of 30 points total in their past two games at the Jets and Dolphins. They are 2-4 entering the playoffs.

 

Kansas City Chiefs QB

 

Alex Smith

 

It’s amazing during the passing era that Alex Smith has not thrown for 200 yards or greater in six straight games all resulting in wins. He has passed for multiple touchdown throws in four of his past seven games.

 

Kansas City Chiefs RB

 

Charcandrick West

 

West is the leading rusher for the Chiefs but it is running back by committee in KC and there is no value in picking one of their running backs in daily or head to head leagues.

 

Kansas City Chiefs WR

 

Jeremy Maclin

 

The former Philadelphia Eagle leads the Chiefs with 87 catches for 1088 yards and eight touchdowns. Problem is Maclin has a high ankle sprain and is questionable.

 

Kansas City Chiefs TE:

 

Travis Kelce

 

Kelce came up big for the Chiefs in their win at Houston. The tight end caught eight balls for 128 yards last week in the AFC Wildcard game. He averaged 16.0 yards per catch in the win. But with Maclin hurt expect the Patriots to game plan to contain Kelce in this spot which leaves Alex Smith few options in the passing game.

 

New England Patriots QB

 

Tom Brady

 

Interesting to see how his high ankle sprain will impact Brady’s ability to throw deep in this game. He has thrown for 231 yards or fewer in three of his past four games and faces a strong defense in the Chiefs.

 

New England Patriots RB

 

Brandon Bolden

 

With numerous injuries in the Patriots backfield Bolden has seen time in the backfield for the Patriots. But he is not trusted to get enough carries in this game to add to a roster.

 

New England Patriots TE:

 

Rob Gronkowski

 

The Patriots veteran tight end leads the team with 72 catches for 1176 yards and 11 touchdowns. Look for Gronkowski to be heavily targeted in this game like he always is. Teams know that Gronk will get passes yet opposing defenses have trouble defending the big man.

 

New England Patriots K

 

Stephen Gostkowski

 

Gostkowski has been money for New England on the year. He is a perfect 52 of 52 on extra points and has been successful in 33 of 36 field goal tries. The Patriots place kicker figures to get many chances in this game because of the high quality of play from the KC defense this year.

 

NFL Playoffs Football Fantasy League Picks

 

QB: Tom Brady (Patriots)

TE: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)

K: Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots)

Posted in NFL

NFL Wild Card Value Picks

Quarterback

With a small slate of games this weekend you’re quarterback choices are limited. So let’s run through the matchups. Houston and Kansas City has all the makings of a low scoring game. These are two defensive dominated teams and this matchup should be low scoring and slow paced, not places of high value for Fantasy NFL contests. Same can be said about Minnesota and Seattle. While Seattle’s offense is explosive, we saw what they did against the strong defensive front of the Cardinals last weekend, I’m saving my quarterback pick for an easier matchup.

The weakest pass defense of the weekend is by far the Steelers, but with the Bengals current quarterback situation, its hard to say anything for sure. In all likelihood AJ McCarron will be taking the field, but there is the small chance Andy Dalton will return for the game. Either way, they both should be able to provide great value with this matchup, just make sure you keep your eye on the injury report and you get the right one in.

Although the Bengals have a strong pass defense, it seems like nobody is able to stop Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown this year. I expect them to have a big game, but I also expect ownership to be very high on these two, so I’m playing the contrarian strategy and avoiding the Steelers stack.

Last we have Washington and Green Bay. This has all the makings for a classic shootout and I think there will be value on both sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers has been very subpar this entire season, but he has been to the playoffs before and I think he will perform. Kirk Cousins on the other hand has been red hot and putting up big numbers, and that does not look to be stopping anytime soon. You’re probably going to find lower ownership with Rodgers so I’ll give him the edge in a tournament, but based on his performance this year, that may be a risky play.

Running Back

Our premium running backs for the week are Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Jeremy Hill, Characandrick West, and Eddie Lacy. As of now Williams looks to be out for this weekend so lets rule him out now (even if he were playing I don’t love the matchup). Marshawn Lynch will be returning but with the offensive efficiency of the Seahawks lately, its hard to say they will need to make much use of him so I am staying away from Beast mode as well. The Vikings may find it hard to pass against the dominating defense and will certainly run the ball a lot to Peterson, but he has not been as dominant this year as in years past and the Seahawks may shut him down. West as well is facing a tough defense, especially recently, so my recommendation is stay away from any Chiefs back.

So we are left with Hill and Lacy, both on the cheap end as far as premium running backs go. The way the Bengals use Hill and Bernard is very dependent on the matchup. They utilize Hill to run the ball up the middle while Bernard is valued more highly for his speed in screen passes and short drops. This matchup may be better for Bernard than Hill, and Bernard comes at a much cheaper price. Not a bad pick for this week. Lacy is the only premium back I like for this week. Like Hill, he could take a backseat position to Starks but I think Lacy has asserted himself as the primary back after early struggles in the season.

If you are looking for value at Running back however, there is a lot to be found. Starks and Bernard, as previously mentioned, will both only cost you less that $4000 on Fanpicks. Alfred Morris and Pierre Thomas both are a threat to accumulate fantasy value with their run and pass threat. The real value pick of the week is Jonathan Grimes, who put together a big game last weekend and comes at only $2700.

Wide Receiver

The same analysis on Quarterbacks applies to receivers as well. We want to stick with the good matchups: Steelers/Bengals and Packers/Redskins. Skipping out on Antonio Brown may just cost you a win, but I think there is more upside potential on fading Brown, especially for NFL Daily Fantasy Tournaments type contests. AJ Green should be able to put up some big numbers this week regardless of who gets the starting position at Quarterback.

I also like Desean Jackson or Pierre Garcon if you are looking to save a little money at the position. We know Cousins is going to throw the ball and we know he is going to throw it a lot. He may throw a couple interceptions but that doesn’t hurt his fantasy value too bad. It all just depends on which receiver can manage to get open between these two and Reed.

A good contrarian stack is Rodgers and either Cobb or Jones. They haven’t done much this year and are not on many people radar, but like I said before, the Packers know the playoffs. Cobb should get more targets but Jones is more of a long threat. The choice is up to you, I’m going Cobb.

Tight End

For me, the viable tight ends for this week are Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert. While you can make the argument for Heath Miller and Richard Rodgers, I think you will find much more value with Eifert and Reed. Reed is an obvious pick as he has had some very big games lately and is arguably the top tight end in the league. However, that also means he is going to come with a high ownership level, bad news for a tournament play.

That’s why I’m going with Eifert. I can’t stress enough how weak Pittsburgh is against the pass as all of their games end up turning into a shootout. Eifert will especially benefit if Dalton returns this weekend as there is usually great synergy between the two.

Posted in NFL

Kansas City Chiefs versus Houston Texans Real Money NFL Playoffs Fantasy Picks 1-9-2016

The Wildcard round of the NFL playoffs get underway with the Houston Texans hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. One day fantasy league GM’s can tune to ESPN TV on Saturday January 9th at 4:35PM Eastern Time to track the results of their real money roster picks.

 

These teams have a history during the 2015 campaign as they met in Week 1 with Kansas City earning the 27-20 victory on the road. Houston did outgain the Chiefs and that was due in part to a pick six interception return for the Chiefs. KC built up a 27-9 halftime lead and was held scoreless in the second half. Alex Smith passed for 243 yards and three touchdowns in the victory. Brian Hoyer was benched in this game. He threw for 236 yards hitting on 18 of 34 passes with a touchdown and pick.

 

Kansas City has closed the season strongly winning ten straight games. This came before a five game losing streak as the Chiefs opened the year at 1-5 as their offense sputtered. The Chiefs have the 30th ranked passing attack and are sixth in rushing offense. The defense has carried Kansas City as they rank third in the NFL in scoring defense by allowing 17.9 points per game.

 

Houston was the winner of a weak AFC South division. They closed the year with three straight victories including a clutch 16-10 road win at Indianapolis which put the Texans in control of the division. The Texans rank near the middle in most offensive categories. The defense has been outstanding down the stretch for the Texans that it moved the team to number three in yardage allowed by giving up 310 yards per game.

 

Kansas City Chiefs QB:

 

Alex Smith

 

Known as a dink and dunk passer who is reluctant going deep downfield with passes. The veteran signal caller has completed 65.3% of his throws this year for 3486 yards with 20 touchdowns and seven picks. He threw two picks last week in the win against Oakland. His passing numbers have been futile in recent weeks. Smith has thrown for 191 yards or fewer over his past five games all against losing teams. Alex Smith has not had success in the post season.

 

Kansas City Chiefs RB:

 

Charcandrick West

 

With a season ending injury to Jamaal Charles the Chiefs were scrambling to find a replacement at running back. Second year man Charcandrick West stood out from the backups as he has rushed for 634 yards on 160 carries with four touchdowns. He averaged just 4 yards a carry and contributed in the passing game with 20 catches for 214 yards and a touchdown. He struggled last week with 34 rushing yards on 13 carries.

 

Kansas City Chiefs WR:

 

Jeremy Maclin

 

The veteran wide receiver was a good acquisition for KC in the offseason. He caught 87 passes for 1088 yards with eight touchdowns. Last year Kansas City did not complete a touchdown to a wide receiver. Maclin has a touchdown reception in three straight and five of his past six games.

 

Houston Texans QB:

 

Brian Hoyer

 

The Texans signal caller has completed 60.7% of his passes for 2606 yards with 19 touchdowns and 7 picks. He returned to the lineup last week in the win against Jacksonville as he threw for 249 yards with a touchdown and pick. He missed two games with a concussion. Hoyer has thrown for multiple touchdown throws in seven of his past ten games.

 

Houston Texans RB:

 

Alfred Blue

 

With the season long injury to Arian Foster it was Alfred Blue getting the majority of the carries this year. Blue has rushed for 698 yards on 183 carries and two touchdowns. He rushed for 102 yards on 21 carries on Jacksonville. In their huge win at Indy the running back had 107 rushing yards on 20 carries in Week 15.

 

Houston Texans WR:

 

DeAndre Hopkins

 

The third year pro had his best numbers in 2015 with 111 catches for 1521 yards with 11 touchdowns. He is averaging 13.7 yards per catch. He has caught seven or greater passes in three straight games.

 

NFL Playoff Football Fantasy League Picks

 

 

QB: Brian Hoyer (Texans)

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (Texans)

RB: Charcandrick West (Chiefs)

Posted in NFL

Week 16 Value Picks

Quarterback

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The shootout of the weekend should be between Jacksonville and New Orleans, assuming Drew Brees is healthy enough to take the field after tearing his plantar last week (the same injury Peyton Manning is struggling with). These two quarterbacks love to throw the ball and their defenses love to let the ball be thrown. I give Bortles the fantasy edge though since the Saints defense is more flawed fundamentally and Bortles just loves to throw the ball way down the field.

Kirk Cousins could be a great value pick this weekend as well. He has been on fire lately and we see the weapons he has in Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson (even Alfred Morris as well). Thats not even considering the fact that the Eagles secondary is great at making any quarterback look like Tom Brady out there.

Running Back

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As you can see from the above, there are not many great options at running back this week with the highest projected running back as Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) with only 20.6 projected points. You can spend the money at Running back if you wish and go with the likes of Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) and Matt Forte (CHI @ TB) in what should be a run off, or you can save your money for the higher value at the Receiver position and go for the bargain picks of Darren Sproles (WAS @ PHI), Tim Hightower (JAX @ NO), Christine Michael (STL @ SEA), or Ameer Abdullah (SF @ DET).

Wide Receiver

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 9.41.06 AM

The stack of the week should be Allen Robinson and Blake Bortles against the Saints. There is no denying that the Big Ben and Antonio Brown connection has been unstoppable this year, no matter what the matchup. He is going to cost you a pretty penny but fading Antonio Brown may just kill your chances of winning big, as it has plenty of weekends this year already.

Or you can go with Doug Baldwin who has scored over 10 touchdowns in the past 4 weeks. Can he keep this streak going against the Rams? I’m saying yes, not that he will score another 3 touchdowns, but he should be able to haul in 1 or 2 providing some good fantasy value. Seattle doesn’t seem to be stopping this charge until the season ends.

If you are trying to find a cheap value receiver to fill that last spot in your lineup with limited funds, you can look to Jeremy Maclin (CLE @ KC), John Brown (GB @ ARI), Michael Floyd (GB @ ARI), Willie Snead (JAX @ NO), Bradon Cooks (JAX @ NO), or Golden Tate (SF @ DET).

Tight End

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 9.44.28 AM

The tight end decision has been made easier in the previous couple weeks with Gronk out. Up until then the decision was go for Gronk, accept the 50+% ownership and $7000+ price tag and hope its his week, or choose from the list of alternative tight ends. The Gronk versus the field decision is back. This week it is easy though.

Gronk has not shown his dominance of previous years this season and is only projected about 1 point higher than the Saints‘ Benjamin Watson. The value picks here are Ebron and Kelce. Kelce has been stagnated slightly since his explosive start to the season and his salary reflects that decline. However, he has high end potential against the Browns, which is what you are going to need to win any big NFL Daily Fantasy Tournament. Ebron as well has shown brilliance at times this year and is getting more action lately with Calvin Johnson all of the sudden becoming obsolete in their offense. Ebron comes much cheaper than the other highly projected options and allows you to spend the cash where you want this week, with the receivers.

Posted in NFL

NFL Week 15 Recap

Cam Newton Continues to Win

The word on the street going into this week was that the Giants may be the team to stop the Panthers dominance, with Eli having a history of upsetting undefeated teams. It did not seem that way early on with Odell being so off his game, but they turned things around in the second half, putting the Panther’s undefeated season in Jeopardy.

The Panthers were able to winning the end though. Cam Newton showed he can win with any personnel, spreading the ball out to 4 different receivers (Ginn (2), Olsen, Funchess, and Brown) for receiving touchdowns. On top of those 5 passing touchdowns he racked up 340 passing yards and 100 rushing yards for his usual, massive fantasy value.

Redskins find their passing game

Kirk Cousins showed he meant business as Washington dominated the Bills. Cousins went 22 for 28 on passes for 319 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns and a 13 yard rushing touchdown. Additionally, he ran one in himself. As far as receivers went, Cousins picked his favorites, connecting with Jordan Reed for 2 touchdown passes, DeSean Jackson for 153 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown, and Pierre Garcon for a receiving touchdown.

Bears can’t stop the pass

Teddy Bridgewater had an uncharacteristically good passing game throwing 17 for 20 with 4 passing touchdowns for 231 passing yards against Chicago. On top of that, he showed his athleticism with 17 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. After Peterson was limited early to an ankle injury, they were forced to rely on the passing game, which the Bears were not able stifle. Bridgewater connected with Diggs for 55 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns and with Jerick McKinnon for 76 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.

Denver’s Defense can’t hold back the Steelers

Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger continue to dominate, even against what may be the best defense in the NFL. Big Ben threw for 380 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns while Brown caught 16 passes for 189 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Brown’s numbers was beat early on by the Broncos‘ Emmanuel Sanders catching 10 passes for 181 receiving yards and a touchdown, but the Steelers rally late in the game pushed Brown ahead.

Danny Woodhead single handedly beats the Dolphins

Well maybe he needed the rest of his team out there… but it seems like Woodhead can do it all as he scored 4 total touchdowns, 3 receiving and 1 rushing. He ended the day with a total of 38 fantasy points combining those touchdowns with receptions, receiving yards, and rushing yards.

Hard to find value at Running Back

Not much value could be found at running back this week. Those who did provide value did so by combining rushing stats with receiving stats. The Patriots‘ James White did so with only 1 rush for 6 yards but 7 receptions for 71 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. Similarly, Devonta Freeman had 56 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown for decent value, but he added on top of that 7 receptions for 45 receiving yards.

The same could be said for Matt Forte as he rushed for only 47 yards but had 6 receptions for 57 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. The Chiefs‘ Charcandrick West logged 76 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown as well to be among the weekends leaders at running back. Rashad Jennings provided some fantasy value in a high scoring loss against the Panthers with 107 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

Posted in NFL

NFL Week 11 Value Picks

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (Oak @ Det) Although he has thrown almost as many interceptions this year as touchdowns, Stafford always has the potential for a high upside with the lions aggressive passing (that usually comes from being behind early). If Calvin Johnson doesn’t start that could hurt his value a bit but regardless, Stafford should be able to provide good fantasy value for his cheap price among Quarterbacks.
Projection: 23.3 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $6300

 

Tyrod Taylor (Buf @ NE) Taylor is another nice example of a cheap quarterback with high potential for garbage points. Facing the best team in the league, the Bills will be forced to pass the ball to attempt to fight out of their deficit.
Projection: 22.8 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5500

 

Russell Wilson (SF @ Sea) Russell Wilson has failed to provide any sort of fantasy value so far this season but this may be the week he can turn things around. With the Seahawks running backs struggling (Lynch injured and Rawls unproductive) Wilson may resort to throwing the ball or running it himself, either which will be great for his fantasy production.
Projection: 22.5 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $6100

Running Back

Charcandrick West (KC @ SD) West has had great production over the past 3 games scoring a rushing touchdown in each, with an additional receiving touchdown last week. With a favorable matchup this week against the Chargers and his salary remaining on the low end, West is a great value pick for this week.
Projection: 17.7 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4900

 

Latavius Murray (Oak @ Det) Murray has been averaging over 15 rushing attempts per game along with several receptions as well. This gives him huge upside potential to have a big fantasy performance, especially against the weak Lions defensive front.
Projection: 19.1 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5100

 

Jonathan Stewart (Was @ Car) Stewart has gotten at least 20 rushing attempts in all of the Panthers last 4 games. The Panthers should be able to get ahead early and run down the clock, which means plenty of action for Stewart. If Newton hands off those red zone carries instead of taking them himself, Stewarts production could be even better.
Projection: 18.7 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4900

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins (Buf @ NE) Watkins, like Taylor, should be able to rack up the garbage time points against the Patriots. A cheap stack between the two can provide good value and free up cash for other premium players. Nothing glamorous but points are points are point in Daily Fantasy NFL Contests.
Projection: 24.4 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5600

 

Brandon Lafell (Buf @ NE) With Edelman out and Lafell back on the rise, he should get an increase in targets and should be able to open it up for a touchdown. Edelman’s targets may go to Gronk and Amendola, but I think Lafell has the most to gain from Edelman’s absence.
Projection: 22.5 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5000

 

Golden Tate (Oak @ Det) If Calvin Johnson doesn’t get the start Tate will be the primary target for Stafford against the weak Oakland secondary. He has been under the radar so far this season but has great fantasy upside in a favorable matchup.
Projection: 20.1 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $5100

Tight End

Crockett Gilmore (Stl @ Bal) Don’t expect a huge number of targets or receiving yards out of Gilmore, but he has been productive in the red zone. If he can get a touchdown for a third game in a row then he will be a good draft pick for your winning lineup.
Projection: 15.8 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $3700

 

Eric Ebron (Oak @ Det) Ebron is another under the radar tight end. Don’t expect a huge number of targets, although they may be increased without Calvin Johnson at 100 percent. He has scored 3 touchdowns this year and always is a red zone threat.
Projection: 13.2 Fantasy Points
Fanpicks Salary: $4000

Posted in NFL