Titans finally win one at home 36-22 against the Jags

Marcus Mariota accumultaed 270 yards and 2 touchdowns, leaving behind the losing woes at home. The Tennessee Titans had their best game of the season in offense in their Thursday Night Football 36-22 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars (Enter NFL Contests). Since the beginning of the 2014 campaign, the Titans had a 3-0 record against the Jags and a 1-17 versus all other NFL teams. They hold a 3-8 record at home with Mariota in the lineup. The quarterback completed 18 of his 22 pass for a total of 270 yards and a efficiency rating of 148.1. It’s his second highest total in career.

Tennessee’s running back DeMarco Murray collected 123 rushing yards, and added a touchdown to his stats line. The Titans (4-4) accumulated 494 yards in offense, a season best this season. They’ve won three of their last four games. They’ve also scored points in six straight possession during a sequence that started in the first quarter of the game and ended in the third. Wideout Rishard Matthews crossed the end zone, as well, in a 4 yard pass from Mariota.

The Jaguars (2-5) was trailing 24-0 when they gained their second first down of the game. It was halfway through the second quarter. Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles threw three touchdown passes. He completed 33 of it’s 54 passes for 337 yards. His production mainly came at the end of the game, when the victory was already out of reach for Jacksonville. Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and Bryan Walters all scored a touchdown during that second half push from the Jags.

Next up for the Titans is a Sunday visit to San Diego against the Chargers. The Jaguars will, on their end, meet the Chiefs on Sunday as well.

Posted in NFL

Week 16 Value Picks

Quarterback

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The shootout of the weekend should be between Jacksonville and New Orleans, assuming Drew Brees is healthy enough to take the field after tearing his plantar last week (the same injury Peyton Manning is struggling with). These two quarterbacks love to throw the ball and their defenses love to let the ball be thrown. I give Bortles the fantasy edge though since the Saints defense is more flawed fundamentally and Bortles just loves to throw the ball way down the field.

Kirk Cousins could be a great value pick this weekend as well. He has been on fire lately and we see the weapons he has in Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson (even Alfred Morris as well). Thats not even considering the fact that the Eagles secondary is great at making any quarterback look like Tom Brady out there.

Running Back

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As you can see from the above, there are not many great options at running back this week with the highest projected running back as Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) with only 20.6 projected points. You can spend the money at Running back if you wish and go with the likes of Doug Martin (CHI @ TB) and Matt Forte (CHI @ TB) in what should be a run off, or you can save your money for the higher value at the Receiver position and go for the bargain picks of Darren Sproles (WAS @ PHI), Tim Hightower (JAX @ NO), Christine Michael (STL @ SEA), or Ameer Abdullah (SF @ DET).

Wide Receiver

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The stack of the week should be Allen Robinson and Blake Bortles against the Saints. There is no denying that the Big Ben and Antonio Brown connection has been unstoppable this year, no matter what the matchup. He is going to cost you a pretty penny but fading Antonio Brown may just kill your chances of winning big, as it has plenty of weekends this year already.

Or you can go with Doug Baldwin who has scored over 10 touchdowns in the past 4 weeks. Can he keep this streak going against the Rams? I’m saying yes, not that he will score another 3 touchdowns, but he should be able to haul in 1 or 2 providing some good fantasy value. Seattle doesn’t seem to be stopping this charge until the season ends.

If you are trying to find a cheap value receiver to fill that last spot in your lineup with limited funds, you can look to Jeremy Maclin (CLE @ KC), John Brown (GB @ ARI), Michael Floyd (GB @ ARI), Willie Snead (JAX @ NO), Bradon Cooks (JAX @ NO), or Golden Tate (SF @ DET).

Tight End

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The tight end decision has been made easier in the previous couple weeks with Gronk out. Up until then the decision was go for Gronk, accept the 50+% ownership and $7000+ price tag and hope its his week, or choose from the list of alternative tight ends. The Gronk versus the field decision is back. This week it is easy though.

Gronk has not shown his dominance of previous years this season and is only projected about 1 point higher than the Saints‘ Benjamin Watson. The value picks here are Ebron and Kelce. Kelce has been stagnated slightly since his explosive start to the season and his salary reflects that decline. However, he has high end potential against the Browns, which is what you are going to need to win any big NFL Daily Fantasy Tournament. Ebron as well has shown brilliance at times this year and is getting more action lately with Calvin Johnson all of the sudden becoming obsolete in their offense. Ebron comes much cheaper than the other highly projected options and allows you to spend the cash where you want this week, with the receivers.

Posted in NFL

Week 16 Start or Sit Advice

 

By: Aldo Panessidi

 

All I Want for Christmas Is a Fantasy Football Championship

This week Fanpicks.com provides you with our winning fantasy football lineup advice.  We have designed the RotoPicker a powerful lineup optimizer tool… to help you create the winning lineups.

Quarterback

Start ‘Em

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints

Consider yourself gifted this week if you were lucky enough to pick up and ride Bortles to your championship. Well this gift just keeps on giving as the Jags take on the Saints and their NFL worst defense. Bortles is now over 3,800 yards on the season to go with 31 TDs. He has firmly put himself into the top tier of QBs in his second year. The young Jags QB has now pushed himself up to the 4th ranked QB in fantasy points on the season and should add significantly to that in week 16.

Sit ‘Em

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

If he helped get you to the finals you need to stick with Rodgers, but there are concerns here. He’s thrown less than 220 yards in four of his last five games and hasn’t thrown more than two TDs since week nine. Rodgers is in the midst of a down year so relying on him for elite performance is not a good idea in your final. Arizona’s defense is very good overall and top 10 against QBs in fantasy points allowed. The loss of Tyrann Mathieu will hurt, but the Cardinals are still a quality unit and have the ability to shut an offense down. This looks like another difficult week for the Packers. Still, I’d hate to bench him then watch the old Rodgers emerge for a shootout in Arizona. I almost feel like recommending a sit for Rodgers could trigger him to break out of this slump.

Honorable Mention

I think it’s safe to say that you should bench Matt Ryan against Carolina if possible. His 224 yard performance that included a fumble and a pick against the same team two weeks ago suggests this is not going to end well for Atlanta. Don’t think about getting cute in daily games with the likes of A.J. McCarron, Case Keenum, or Brock Osweiler. Each one faces one of the top three defenses in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Running Back

Start ‘Em

Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints

It looks like Robinson is in line for another start this weekend against the Saints with T.J. Yeldon missing practice while wearing a knee brace. Throw away last week’s 28 yard performance and rest easy in the fact that he gets an even worse defense to exploit this week. Robinson is a speed back so you are somewhat reliant on him breaking runs for long chunks of yardage. Last week he didn’t get away from the defense, but I would expect him to have multiple shots at ripping a long TD run in week 16.

Karlos Williams, Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

Williams will continue to add to his impressive rookie campaign this week with LeSean McCoy again missing time. Williams has a juicy matchup against Dallas, now allowing over 118 rushing yards a game. With the Cowboys offense unable to put points on the board expect the Bills to control this game on both sides of the ball leading to positive game flow for the Bills and Williams. Mike Gillislee has some role, but anything more than spot duty would be unexpected as long as Williams is healthy.

Sit ‘Em

Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Traveling to CenturyLink Field to face the Seahawks during a hot streak is not something any running back wants to do. They have allowed less than 50 yards to RBs in each of their last five games and get to play with the 12th man at home. Gurley has been a dichotomous enigma of a back this year. He’s looked like the next Adrian Peterson at times and then the next week averages two yards a carry. Take his last four game’s rushing totals for example; 19, 41, 140, 48 yards. Rather than this being Gurley’s fault it’s likely that the Rams lack of flexibility on offense has allowed teams to key on Gurley to shut him down. Unless he gets lucky and breaks one, this looks more like one of those 48 yard games for the talented young running back.

Honorable Mention

Could Ameer Abdullah possibly put up two good games in a row? He’s facing the 49ers at home and might be an intriguing dart throw in a tournament. This week projects as another James White week over Brandon Bolden/Joey Iosefa against the Jets. DeAngelo Williams has another tough day ahead traveling to Baltimore.

 

Wide Receiver

Start ‘Em

DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

After missing much of the season Jackson has brought fresh legs to the ‘Skins along with four scores in the last five games. The Eagles are nowhere close to decent against the pass and look very susceptible to a couple big plays against Washington. While Jackson has a history of being hit or miss, he’s the big play guy that could dial up a couple long TDs in this one. He’s a tournament option due to volatility, but has a huge ceiling based on the matchup.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

Parker showed up again last weekend after disappearing in week 14. He’s now had totals of 80, 63, 16, and 87 yards with two TDs in the last four games. Parker is getting himself targets and has flashed some of the potential that led to him being a first round draft pick. This week if Vontae Davis is asked to shadow Jarvis Landry it could mean Parker is in line for a bunch of targets. I could possibly even see a “breakout” game if he is able to pull in a high percentage of the throws that go his way.

Sit ‘Em

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams

Unfortunately all good things must come to an end. Baldwin has put up a whopping ten TDs over the last four games, an impressive feat for a season! Sooner or later though this streak will stall out and I am worried your Fantasy Bowl is the week he throws up a dud. The Rams have an above average secondary for one. Doug’s yardage totals have also decreased each week during this journey leading to just 45 yards on four catches last week. While I think he still gathers a few catches I’m concerned this will be 4-50 sort of game and without the TDs that’s not going to do it for you.

Honorable Mention

Cincinnati receivers have an uphill battle against the Broncos with A.J. McCarron set to lead them once again. How does Ted Ginn keeping scoring when he drops half the passes thrown his way? Sammy Watkins gets a tough matchup against Dallas, but he’s scored six times in the last four games and shown dynamic skills. I’d still roll him out with some confidence.

After shredding the excellent Broncos D last week, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant get a dream matchup in your Fantasy Bowl against the Ravens.

Tight End

Start ‘Em

Zack Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins

Well hello Mr. Ertz. It took most of the season but the Eagle’s tight end has finally emerged as a weekly starter over the last three games. He had 13 targets last week and has scored in two of the last three games. It still befuddles me as to why the Eagles didn’t use him like this all year, but better late than never. Even though the Redskins have done well against the position if Ertz can get another eight-plus targets he should have ample opportunity to put up a nice stat line.

Sit ‘Em

Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

It might finally be time to jump off the Delanie bandwagon. He’s been a beast this season and one of the best in fantasy football. However, he’ll have to play without Marcus Mariota this week and faces a difficult foe in the Texans. Their defense has been very solid and allows the 8th fewest points to tight ends on the season. Walker will have voluminous targets on his side, but 80 yards and a touchdown is asking too much.

Honorable Mention

The Chiefs allow the fewest points to tight ends in football and will face Gary Barnidge for your final. Philadelphia hasn’t let tight ends gather points either, but don’t let that discourage you from starting Jordan Reed. After staying healthy for most of the season he has a firm grasp on TE1 numbers including for this week. Even with missing the first four games Julius Thomas has put up the 16th most points for all TEs this year. Start him against the Saints in your final week. Antonio Gates is a top TE for the week facing the Raiders who have allowed the most TDs to the position.

Defense

Start ‘Em

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs have become the surprise defense of the year. They have a league leading six defensive touchdowns are ranked third in most scoring formats after Denver and Carolina. Over their last eight games this squad has a plus 17 turnover ratio and gets to face the Browns who have the seventh most turnovers on the season. This looks like another good week for the Chiefs so if you’ve ridden them to the championship you can happily throw them out there again one last time.

Sit ‘Em

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

The Jets have been a top ten defense this year and many expected big things from a blitz happy scheme. While they’ve been good, they haven’t been the great defense many expected. With the Patriots coming to town this is a squad to avoid in your final. New England ran over them in their first meeting and could very well put up another 30 this week. In the most important game of your season you can find something better on your waiver wire and should look at your options.

Best of luck with your fantasy football teams this week! Hopefully advice  helps guide you to victory. Make sure you check out our new Lineup Optimizer tool – RotoPicker

Posted in NFL

NFL Week 16 Stacks to look out for

Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson

In terms of how he generates fantasy value, Bortles focuses on Quality over Quantity. By this I mean, he tends to only throw passes of 10 yards or more, and often far more. Looking at Jacksonville’s last game against the Falcons, he threw at least one 20+ yard pass to each of 5 different receivers. Robinson had a rare off game, only catching 3 passes for 57 yards, but he remains Bortles favorite target down the field. Jacksonville is facing the Saints, who although their pass defense has improved as of late, they still rank 3rd on the list of passing yards allowed with 278 passing yards per game.

Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown

If the Broncos can’t stop this dynamic duo, its hard to imagine anyone will be able to. Even against arguably the strongest defense in the NFL, Roethlisberger was able to total 380 passing yards, with Brown catching 16 passes for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading the charts in week 15. Baltimore ranks 12th on the list of most passing yards allowed with 248 passing yards per game, compared to Denver who only allowed 188 passing yards per game (leading the NFL) going into week 15 where they were dominated by the Steelers.

Jimmy Clausen and Kamar Aiken

However, as strong as the Steelers’ offense is, they still are not a dominant team due to the weakness on the defensive side. They rank second in most passing yards allowed with 279 per game and if you are looking for a lower ownership, high risk stack, the Clausen and Aiken may be the stack for you. If you overlook the 2 interceptions Clausen threw last weekend, he put up some quality numbers (281 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns) against a strong Chiefs defense. Aiken had 8 receptions for 73 receiving yards and a touchdown last week as well.

Kirk Cousins and DeSean Jackson

I probably don’t need to tell you how weak the Eagles secondary is and how disadvantaged they are to the long ball. Kirk Cousins should have a big game against the Eagles, my only debate here was which receiver to stack him with. Looking at the season as a whole, Jordan Reed is his favorite target but the Eagles’ weakness lies more in the secondary, which is where DeSean Jackson seems to dominate. Against the Bills last week he racked up 153 receiving yards on only 6 catches, averaging 25.5 yards per catch.

Posted in NFL

NFL Week 15 Value Picks

Quarterback

Fantasy football

Carson Palmer (Ari @ Phi)  Carson Palmer has been on roll lately.  The Cardinals have depth at the receiver position and everyone is health.  The Eagles on the other hand have not been able to stop the long ball with their lack of depth at corner back.  Perfect conditions for Palmer to have a big passing game, especially to the likes of Michael Floyd and John Brown.

 

Blake Bortles (Atl @ Jax) While the Jaguars have not been winning many games, and Bortles does not among the list of top quarterbacks in terms of gameplay.  He is an allstar fantasy quarterback.  He throws the long ball more than any other quarterback and he been consistently able to produce big numbers (despite a couple of interceptions being pretty common).  The Falcons have not been strong against the pass either.

 

Running Back

Fantasy football

Bryce Brown (Cle @ Sea)  The Seahawks have been unstoppable in their last 3 games and showing to be a serious Super Bowl contender.  They should have no issue blowing out the Browns, but with Lynch and Rawls out, they will need a running back to run down the clock once they have established their lead.  It looks like Brown will get those duties.

 

Lamar Miller (Mia @ SD)  The Chargers rank 6th on the list of rushing yards allowed per game with 127 rushing yards allowed per game.  Miller is coming off a 2 touchdown game against the giants.

 

Wide Receiver

Fantasy football

Golden Tate (Det @ NO) Although the Saints defense has been stronger as of late, they still average the third most passing yards allowed per game.  Golden Tate has only dropped 4 passes on 28 targets over the pass 4 games and if Calvin Johnson continues to struggle, Tate is the logical next target.

 

Demaryius Thomas (Den @ Pit) Pittsburgh is the most likely team to be involved in a shootout type game.  They have an explosive offense, but allow huge amounts of opposing passing yards as well.  Thomas has been working well with Osweiier recently and may be in for a big game against the Steelers.

 

Tight End

Fantasy football

Benjamin Watson (Det @ NO) Watson has amounted 28 targets from Brees over the past 3 games.  He has only managed to catch 15 of them, which means he has potential for big fantasy value if he can reel in those passes.

 

Posted in NFL

Tennessee Titans versus Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday Night Football Fantasy Picks 11-19-2015

Thursday Night Football will be a battle in the AFC South division as the Jacksonville Jaguars are hosting the Tennessee Titans. DFS draft GM’s can tune to NFL Network on November 19th at 8:30PM Eastern Time to follow the results of their NFL one day fantasy league picks.

It has been a difficult year for the Tennessee Titans as the team is 2-7 entering play. They have struggled at home with a 0-5 mark but are 2-2 on the road. These teams have split their two regular season meetings the past five years. After their 34-28 road victory at New Orleans two weeks ago the Titans hosted the Carolina Panthers last week and fell 27-10. The offense has been stagnant in recent weeks as the team has been held to ten point or fewer in four of their past five games. The only game where they got over 10 points was their win against the worst defensive team in the NFL in the Saints. The Titans are 30th in the NFL in total offense as they gain only 324 yards per game on the season. The defensive play has been better as the club is fifth in total defense by allowing 326 yards to their opponents.

The Jacksonville Jaguars surprisingly finds itself in the midst of an AFC South division race with a record of 3-6. They sit just one game back of the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans atop the division. They have won two of their past three games after a 22-20 victory on the road last week at the Baltimore Ravens. It was a better defensive performance by the team as they had given up 28 or greater points in their previous four games. As a result the Jaguars are 30th and third worst in the NFL in scoring defense by allowing 28.3 points per game. Offensively the team ranks in the lower third in most categories on the campaign.

Tennessee Titans QB:

Marcus Mariota

The rookie quarterback of the Titans is completing 65.6% of his throws this season with 1795 yards with 13 touchdowns and 6 picks. He has missed two games due to injury. In the loss to Carolina last week Mariota hit 66.7% of his throws for 185 yards with no touchdowns and one pick. Two weeks ago at New Orleans Mariota threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns. In week one at Tampa Bay he had 209 yards passing with four touchdowns.

Tennessee Titans RB:

Antonio Andrews

It has been running back by committee for the Titans with three backs sharing carries in the backfield. Andrews leads the team with 298 yards rushing on 84 carries. He is averaging 3.5 yards a carry and has two rushing touchdowns.

Tennessee Titans TE:

Delanie Walker

Walker leads the team by far with 45 catches for 508 yards with three touchdowns. Last year he averaged 14.1 yards a catch. Two weeks ago in the win at New Orleans he grabbed seven passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. In the loss to Carolina Walker had three receptions for 52 yards which averaged out to 17.3 yard per catch.

Jacksonville Jaguars QB:

Blake Bortles

The second year signal caller for the Jaguars is completing 55.3% of his throws for 2381 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 picks. He has shown improvement from a rookie campaign where he played in 14 games and had 11 touchdowns with 17 picks. Bortles has thrown for two touchdowns or greater in five straight games and seven of his nine games. He completed only 49% of his throws last week but did have two touchdown passes with a pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars RB:

T.J. Yeldon

The rookie running back has seen the bulk of the work in the Jaguars backfield. He has 133 rushes for 531 yards and a touchdown. Yeldon is running for 4 yards per carry and has contributed in the passing game with 24 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars WR:

Allen Robinson

Robinson leads the Jaguars with 45 catches for 758 yards with seven touchdowns. He has blown away his rookie numbers. The second year wide out is averaging 16.8 yards per catch.

NFL Thursday Night Football Real Money Fantasy League Picks

QB: Blake Bortles (Jaguars)

RB: T.J. Yeldon (Jaguars)

WR: Allen Robinson (Jaguars)

TE: Delanie Walker (Titans)

Posted in NFL