NFL Week 14 Value Picks


Jameis Winston (NO @ TB) Based on season averages, New Orleans still maintains the second most passing yards allowed (average 287 passing yards per game) in the NFL, only beat by the Giants (average 314 passing yards per game). While they gave the Panthers a good game last week in what was probably their most impressive showing this season, they still allowed 331 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns. Winston has been consistently getting decent number of passing yards and if he can connect with Evans, Jackson, or Seferian-Jenkins for a couple passing touchdowns, he could be a big value pick for the week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Ten @ NYJ) Fitzpatrick is coming off of two big fantasy performances in a row with 277 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns two weeks ago and 390 passing yards with 2 passing touchdowns last week. While Tennessee ranks somewhat low in passing yards allowed with an average of 230 per game, Fitzpatrick is hot and he has his two weapons in Marshall and Decker.

Running Backs

David Johnson (Min @ Ari) Johnson is now the primary running back in a team that used to split the play time between three. He showed he could handle the role last week with 99 rushing yards, 22 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown. Minnesota has allowed an average of 116 rushing yards per game and the majority of those should go to Johnson, with Kerynn Williams taking his share as well.

Bilal Powell (Ten @ NYJ) Although classified as a running back, Powell produced his value last week with receptions and reception yards. He ran for only 17 yards but has 8 receptions for 91 yards and a receiving touchdown. He is a good value stack with Fitzpatrick this week.

Wide Receivers

Marvin Jones (Pit @ Cin) Pittsburgh is also very high on the list of passing yards allowed with an average of 275 passing yards allowed per game. Marvin Jones has proved to be one of Dalton’s favorite targets and Dalton has been on his game lately. Jones still comes at a very cheap price and he has a high upside this week against the Steelers.

Vincent Jackson (NO @ TB) While Evans may be the receiver getting the most attention from this team, Jackson has been quietly generating good fantasy value. The Saints weak secondary does not have much depth, so Jackson may be able to sneak away with a couple long balls undetected.

Tight Ends

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NO @ TB) Seferian-Jenkins has a high potential for fantasy value and his salary is very low. He is a good stack to use with Winston for this week against the weak Saints defense. Seferian-Jenkins was limited last week but should see an increase in play time and targets this week.

Antonio Gates (SD @ KC) Rivers has been struggling as of late after a hot start to the season. He has been somewhat limited with injuries to his top receivers, but that has served to give Gates much more targets, especially in the red zone. If Rivers can get his game going again, Gates has good upside potential this week.

Posted in NFL

Week 7 NFL Value Picks


Andrew Luck (NO @ Ind): This is a matchup of strong pass oriented teams with weak secondary defense, everything aligning for a shootout. Both of these quarterbacks are coming off of shoulder injuries and may not be 100 percent but Luck seems to be less limited by his shoulder than Brees, as he is tentative to go for the long passes.

Projection: 28.2 Fantasy Points

Carson Palmer (Bal @ Ari): Palmer has been very consistent in the 18-26 fantasy point range so far this year but was hurt with 2 interceptions and only 1 touchdown last week despite throwing over 400 passing yards. Look for him to dominate this week against a very weak Baltimore defense.

Projection: 26.7 Fantasy Points

Phillip Rivers (Oak @ SD): Rivers is on a roll lately and his salary has yet to start reflecting his performance. Last week he threw for 500 yards and two touchdowns. With all the options he has at receiver, there is no reason to think he will stop throwing.

Projection: 26.3 Fantasy Points

Running Back

Todd Gurley (Cle @ StL): Gurley has been was in the limelight week 4 when he broke out with 146 rushing yards and then proved it was not a fluke in week 5 rushing for 156 against a strong Green Bay defense. While high ownership players are never good picks in Daily Fantasy NFL contests, my hope is he has been somewhat forgotten after the Rams Week 6 bye. Regardless, he is bound to have a big game against one of the worst rush defenses.

Projection: 22.8 Fantasy Points

Frank Gore (NO @ Ind): While I see this game becoming a shootout between Luck and Brees, Gore may still have some opportunity to score a few touchdowns in red zone situations or if the Colts get ahead early. Its hard to pass on such a reliable running back who’s salary still does not reflect his fantasy potential. New Orleans run defense is weak so if he gets the same number of attempts as he has recently, I expect him to be near 100 rushing yards with a touchdown and a couple receptions.

Projection: 17.9 Fantasy Points

Arian Foster (Hou @ Mia): All that Houston really has going for them is Arian Foster and Deandre Hopkins. While Hopkins has been dominant in fantasy this year, Foster has been slowly been increasing his workload. If he is healthy this weekend he could have a breakout performance as he has recently been getting a good number of rush attempts and pass targets— the formula for high fantasy value in a running back.

Projection: 22.8 Fantasy Points

Wide Receiver

Larry Fitzgerald (Bal @ Ari): Although Palmer likes to spread out the ball a lot, Fitzgerald has been the most reliable receiver for the Cardinals this year. A stack of Palmer and Fitzgerald could provide huge fantasy value this week if the Baltimore secondary performs as dismal as they have so far this year.

Projection: 29.6 Fantasy Points

Keenan Allen (Oak @ SD): Allen has had great chemistry with Rivers this year, he may not get the red zone targets but if he can get over 100 receiving yards and 10+ receptions, he will easily hit his fantasy value for the week.

Projection: 25.6 Fantasy Points

Donte Moncrief (NO @ Ind): Although Hilton is the primary receiver for the Colts, he has been somewhat inconsistent this year. Moncrief could be a valuable sleeper in this shootout matchup against the Saints.

Projection: 24.9 Fantasy Points

T.Y. Hilton (NO @ Ind): There can be a lot of value with Hilton as well if Luck can keep this level going. Though Luck and Hilton have been disappointing early in the season, things seem to be turning and Hilton has great chemistry with Luck.

Projection 24.2 Fantasy Points

Mike Evans (TB @ Was): Mike Evans has had a lackluster year so far but this looks to be the week he may turn things around. Last week he had a big performance coming off the bye week and there is no reason to think that will not be the case this year again. Tampa Bay is playing the redskins who have been ineffective against the pass.

Projection: 23.6 Fantasy Points

Tight End

Antonio Gates (Oak @ SD): While Rivers does seem to spread the ball around a lot, Gates is his favorite and most reliable red zone receiver. He could easily get a hundred receiving yards and a touchdown or two this week making him a valuable, yet pricey, pick at tight end. Could be a good stack with Rivers at quarterback.

Projection: 22.1 Fantasy Points

Delanie Walker (Atl @ Ten): If you are looking for a cheaper pick at tight end, then Walker is your man. He has a high upside as he has continued to perform as the rest of his team seems to be falling apart. Atlanta has been unable to stop tight ends so far this year and Walker may be overlooked in most Daily Fantasy Contests.

Projection: 17.2 Fantasy Points

Posted in NFL