Strategically Optimizing your NFL Draft Picks based on Day of the Week
Within daily fantasy NFL contests, there are generally two different time slots that contain the majority of games played each week. You can choose the Thursday to Monday contests which includes all of the weeks games, or you can opt for the Sunday only contest. Most users do not give too much though to these different game designations, but choosing the right set of games can increase your winnings if you know how to leverage it to your lineup’s benefit.
The first, somewhat obvious, factor that I should point out is that choosing players in high scoring games is very beneficial in providing fantasy value. A higher scoring game means a larger pool of fantasy points to be distributed to
the players in the game. To predict which matchups will be high scoring the primary contributors are weak defenses and fast paced offenses, but there is statistical evidence to support that the day of the week the game is played also has an effect on how much fantasy value you can expect to attain.
The graph on the right shows fantasy points scored this season at each salary level, separated by color on the day of the week each game was played (Thursday: Blue, Sunday: Black, and Monday: Red). You can’t tell much from the graph as far as determining differences between Thursday, Sunday, and Monday games, but what this graph does tell you it the baseline value you should expect to get for each salary level. For every $1000 in salary spent beyond the $2000 minimum you can expect to get 4 points from that player. Therefore a player costing $4000 should earn you 8 points while a player costing $8000 should earn you 24 points. Any points beyond that are extra fantasy value while failing to hit that mark is a player failing to hit their fantasy value. So remember before you splurge $10,000 on Julio Jones, in order for that pick to be profitable, he needs to score more than 32 fantasy points
Above, you see the same data separated out for Monday games, Sunday games, and Thursday games respectively. Still not blatantly obvious but what the statistics tell us here is that Thursday players on average provide 3.8 points per $1000 in value, Sunday players