NFL Week 9 Optimal Lineup

Learning From Week 9’s Perfect Lineup

QB: Drew Brees (NO): 35.56 Fantasy Points
RB: Llamar Miller (Mia): 33.10 Fantasy Points
RB: DeAngelo Williams (Pit): 39.50 Fantasy Points
WR: Cole Beasley (Dal): 35.20 Fantasy Points
WR: Sammy Watkins (Buf): 33.80 Fantasy Points
WR: Michael Crabtree (Oak): 32.80 Fantasy Points
WR: Antonio Brown (Pit): 48.60 Fantasy Points
TE: Delanie Walker (Ten): 28.50 Fantasy Points
D: N.Y. Jets: 12 Fantasy Points

Salary Used: $46,900
Total Fantasy Points Scored: 299.06

Salary Cap Doesn’t Matter

As you can see from the above lineup, the perfect lineup from last weekend for NFL Daily Fantasy Contests could have been constructed in a normal $50 salary cap game, a 75K salary cap game, or even an unrestricted salary cap game. While there certainly is a correlation between salary and points scored, there will always be cheap players who break out for a big performance every week. DeAngelo Williams, Cole Beasley, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, and Delanie Walker were all well outside the top 10 most expensive players from the weekend. This does not mean you should intentionally shoot to use only $46000 of the allowed $50000 salary cap, it just means if you are satisfied with your lineup and fall a bit short, don’t stress about spending that last $800, it won’t necessarily give you a better lineup.

Team Diversification

My general rule in stacking has been disproved by this lineup. Generally I will stack a Quarterback with either a receiver or a tight end and never pick a running back from the same team as my quarterback or receivers. The reason for this is that these performances are usually inversely correlated. If a game is a shootout type game, you will see big value in the passing positions yet running backs tend to underperform. The opposite can be said about a blowout. When a team is up by a lot they tend to run the ball extensively as opposed to going to the air. Therefore, you can usually only expect one or the other to be profitable in the Fantasy world.

However, when the Steelers generate over 500 offensive yards (mainly concentrated on two players) there is room for both positions to prosper. DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown were the two highest fantasy scorers of the weekend.

Apart from that however, you will see that no other positions on the optimal lineup were from the same team. Typically there is only room for one (or two positions in a quarterback/receiver stack) to really blow up in fantasy value.

The last component here is the Defense position. The Jets players Jacksonville this week and as you can see, nobody from Jacksonville was able to make the optimal lineup. Don’t bet against yourself by picking offensive players that are playing against your defense. You may argue you are hedging against a bad game by either one, but if you stand to win much in NFL cash drafts, you need the stars to align for all your picks, hedging gets you nowhere.

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