Fantasy Baseball Value Picks
Luck of the draw on Pitchers
This weekends fantasy MLB action was defined by some unexpected results from the mound. The pitcher position is the most consistent position in MLB Daily Fantasy since high priced pitchers typically hit their value and low priced pitchers often leave you in the hole (although obviously there are outliers). This weekend however showed much different results as the performance of pitchers appears to be completely independent of their set salary.
The Blue Chips
Let’s start with the high priced pitchers who did what they were supposed to do, brought value to your fantasy lineup as a reward for spending such a premium. On Saturday, Jake Arrieta continued to bring pitching dominance to the Cubs young roster. He pitched 8 innings with 7 strikeouts, allowing no runs and only 4 hits. He may have continued into the 9th for the complete game shutout but he had already thrown 116 pitches up to that point. His Bullpen however was able to finish the job for a 2-0 win over the DBacks. Arrieta finished the day with 52.5 fantasy points under Fanpicks scoring.
On Sunday, Dallas Keuchel scored 57.5 fantasy points in 8 innings as well, but he did it in a much different fashion. He allowed the Twins 5 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs but he also pitched 12 strikeouts. The Astros won 8-5 giving Keuchel the win bonus.
Almost more important to look at is the high valued pitchers that choked this weekend. If you spend $10000+ on a pitcher and they come up short, you can all but guarantee your lineup is in trouble. The worst pitcher pick of the weekend was Danny Salazar of the Cleveland Indians. In Saturday’s game against Detroit, he was pulled after only 3.2 innings after he allowed 8 hits and 6 earned runs. He ended the day with -4.5 fantasy points and doomed your chances of cashing in in any MLB Daily Fantasy Tournament.
Another pitcher who failed to hit his value was Chris Archer of the Rays. What was interesting here is that he was able to shut the Yankees out for 5 innings allowing only one hit, but when things went bad for him, they went bad. With two on base in the 5th, Brian Mccann hit one out of the park. The very next pitch, ARod hit a homer for himself putting the Yankees ahead 4-3. Archer ended the day with 20.5 fantasy points (far below his value) and the Rays lost 4-6.
The key to winning MLB Daily Fantasy Contests however is picking low priced pitchers who end up having big results. These are the value picks and there were a couple great ones this weekend. Ervin Santana of the Twins actually had the highest fantasy total of any pitcher of the weekend and he was only priced a meer $5000 on most daily fantasy sites. He totaled 60.5 fantasy points in the Twins win over Houston accumulating 11 strikeouts over 8 innings and allowing 6 hits and 1 run.
Also with a big performance this weekend was Wade Miley of the Red Sox. He pitched a complete game against the Phillies allowing 5 hits and 2 runs, but pitching 8 strikeouts. If you haven’t noticed yet, strikeouts are huge in creating fantasy value. The hitters did their job as well and the Red Sox won 9-2 over the Phillies. He totaled 52.5 points, the same as Jake Arrieta, but he came at about half of the salary.