Fantasy Baseball – MLB Statistical Anomalies: 32 Runs and the Home Team
Over the past week of MLB action, we saw a couple extremely rare events that had a significant effect on the Fantasy World. The first of those was the 15-0 home team sweep on Tuesday, meaning that out of all 15 games, the home team won every single one.
ESPN and STATS quoted the odds of this event as 1 in 32,768 or .003% but I would argue that stat is a little low. This probability assumes there is an equal likelihood of the home team winning as away team winning (assuming the teams are equal) but has not been the case of the past 5 seasons. Over this time period the home team has won 53.7 percent of games while the away team won the other 46.3 percent. This puts the odds of the home team winning in all 15 games at .009%.
How does this affect your MLB Daily Fantasy Contest? Well the first significant influence is winning pitcher. If your pitcher gets the win that comes with a nice 7.5 point bonus on Fanpicks, and it is likely a winning pitcher will end the game with more favorable game stats anyways. It is always better to have a pitcher on the winning team. Although you shouldn’t expect a night like this again anytime soon, keep in mind the advantage that home team pitchers hold over away team pitchers. This applies to hitters as well. If the home team wins that means they scored more runs than the away team, which equates to a larger pool of fantasy points for your hitters to draw from.
The second statistical anomaly over the past week was the Red Sox beating the mariners in a huge run total of 22-10. In the modern era (since 1900) only 18 times has a team scored more than 24 runs in a game. Assuming a gamma distribution with an average runs scored of 4.1 runs per team, there is only .02% chance of a team scoring 22 or more runs in a single game, meaning it occurs only once in every 2500 games. However, that tells you this event occurs on average twice per season, so the numbers tell you we should see another game like this one.
Needless to say, in terms of One-Day Fantasy MLB tournaments, you don’t want to have the opposing pitcher on a day like this. King Felix was pitching for the Mariners on Saturday and racked up stats of 2.1 innings pitched, 12 hits, and 10 earned runs. All in all, when he left the game in the third inning, he had -16.5 fantasy points under Fanpicks scoring.
On the other side of the plate, Red Sox hitters had a great day. Jackie Bradley Jr. was the biggest performer of the night with 5 hits, 2 of them homers and 2 of them doubles. He made it all the way around the bases on each of those hits and brought in 7 runs, accounting for over half of the huge run total. This brought his final total to 81 fantasy points!!
These are the types of games that produce millionaire lineups. If you picked a Boston stack on Saturday (and avoided Felix Hernandez) and entered it in the right MLB Cash Draft, then you are a very rich man right now. Keep in mind that the numbers say a game like this can happen again, so be ready. A stack doesn’t always pay off but if you are going to win a high stakes tournament, then the stack is usually your best bet.