College Football Weekend Recap
If you take the top performers at each position from Saturdays College Football games you get the following lineup.
QB: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma): 50.4 points
RB: Jalen Richard (Southern Mississippi): 51.7 points
RB: Leonard Fournette (Louisiana State): 45.7 points
RB: C.J. Prosise (Notre Dame): 42.3 points
WR: Roger Lewis (Bowling Green): 54.1 points
WR: Trent Sherfield (Vanderbilt): 49 points
WR: Daniel Braverman (Western Michigan): 45.7 points
WR: Aaron Burbridge (Michigan State): 44.6 points
TE: Ben McCord (Central Michigan): 33.7 points
This totals up to 416.9 points. If you happened to enter a CFB Daily Fantasy tournament this weekend look at what the winner of that tournament scored, it definitely wasn’t within 100 points of this value and probably more in the range of 200 less than this point total.
This tells you a couple things. If you did happen to enter even 6 or 7 of these players in a Cash Draft this weekend, you are probably a very rich person right now. But it also tells you that with the volatility that is related to sports, experts can make their best estimates of what each player will do, but nobody can really predict the future.
The number of possible lineups that can possibly be made with the pool of active college players (521 receivers, 179 quarterbacks, 358 running backs, and 129 tight ends) is 1.48 x 1020 meaning that your chances of choosing that lineup are .00000000000000000068%. The odds are greater with other sports since there is a smaller player pool but the general idea applies to all DFS contests.
But this should not be viewed as a negative aspect, this means that there is always a better lineup you can enter. The lineup that won $1,000,000 dollars in DFS College Football this weekend was still inferior to this optimal lineup as well as thousands of other lineup combinations of these players with other college football performers.
There were several other quarterbacks who could have been substituted in for similar fantasy value. Trevor Boykin from Texas Christian threw for 454 passing yards and throwing 5 passing touchdowns and running one in himself. This totaled 46.2 fantasy points. Matt Johnson from Bowling Green threw 443 passing yards for 5 touchdowns, also running one in himself, for 42.72 fantasy points.